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BELARUSIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
ANDREY KAZAKEVICH,
Editor-in-chief of ”Palitychnaya Sphera” magazine, Minsk
The fact, that right after the presidential elections in Belarus the Kremlin has stated that the gas prices will be raised for Minsk, is quite explainable. It is the price for Russia’s help given to Aliaksandr Lukashenka during the elections. This had been known before the presidential campaign started in Belarus: Minsk had to agree with the new gas prices and transfer some of the state property to Russia. So, the renewal of this discussion between the two countries is quite logical and expectable.
By the way, the situation is similar to that one of 2001, when Russia also supported Aliaksandr Lukashenka in the presidential elections and set tough conditions for Belarus. But the promises were not kept by the President of Belarus. Now, the conditions laid down by the Russian authorities are more distinct.
Renewing this discussion, Russia pursues the economic and political goals. The new Russia’s energy policy aims at increasing profits from the gas and oil exports to the international markets, including those in the post-Soviet space. Russia tries to make Belarus stick to these rules.
The political goal of the Kremlin is to keep Belarus in the realm of Russia’s influence. In Europe the post-Soviet regime remains only in Belarus; Minks continues to be Russia’s faithful ally. In this situation Moscow may make economic concessions in exchange for strengthening its political influence.
However, while integrating with Russia Lukashenka is unlikely to be able to go too far. He is not willing to replace economic benefits offered by the Kremlin with quicker political rapprochement with Russia and, more than that, Belarus’ integration with Russia.
Not only the Belarusian President and Belarusian elites, but also the Belarusian economy will not benefit from it. Some of the measures, for example, introduction of the Russian ruble in Belarus, may lead to bankruptcy of almost a half of the Belarusian enterprises.
Therefore, the Belarusian leadership is first of all interested in maintaining the socioeconomic stability in the country.
If the incorporation of the Belarusian economy into the Russian economic system begins, it will be an extremely slow process. Radical decisions are unlikely to be made, but if it is so, their implementation will be delayed. The most significant example here is the procedure of the currency union formation that has been discussed for several years.
As regards the Belarusian authorities’ reaction to the Russian leadership’s position becoming tougher, there is no information campaign in Belarus this time. However, in 2002 when the Russian-Belarusian relations worsened, the Belarusian mass media conducted a campaign where Russia was imagined negatively.
Now there is no such anti-Russian rhetoric in press and on TV for two reasons. Firstly, the Belarusian authorities knew in advance that Russia would state about its intention to raise the gas prices. Secondly, the both parties are expected to settle disagreements at the table of negotiations. Besides, it is not productive for the Belarusian authorities to start a new ideological mobilization right after the elections.
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