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NOT TO LOSE CENTRAL ASIA
ELENA YATSENKO,
President of the Eurasia Heritage Foundation, Moscow
In the article “To win Central Asia” (“Vedomosti”, August 28, 2007) Stephan Vagshtyl wrote that the EU had failed to work out the strategy towards Central Asia before “reviving Russia and strengthening China”.
At first sight the situation seems to be advantageous for Russia. The recent SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) summit, which took place in Bishkek in the middle of August, confirmed the plans to create the regional Energy Club. The leaders of the EAEC (Eurasian Economic Community) members approved the idea of creating the common energy market. In September concrete decisions must be made on the Caspian Pipeline project. Many analysts took this project as Russia’s victory over its competitors in Central Asia. Some observers said that Europe and the USA were losing that region to Russia. Should the Russian establishment agree with such conclusions with pleasure and relief?
I believe that it shouldn’t. Of course, Russia’s policy in the region has become more intense and successful. After 15 years of stagnation the Russian government started to address the needs of the region again. Much water has flowed under the bridge for this time, and now Central Asia is seen by foreigners in a different way, which provoked the clash of interests of the major actors in the region.
The political and economic processes in the regions – traditional oil and gas suppliers (for example, the Gulf) – make Central Asia more attractive. The prospects for building of trans-Asian transportation corridors are of great interest. Another factor is the military-strategic position of the region as one of the centers of combating the international terrorism.
Possessing such advantages, the Central Asian states are becoming agents of world politics and can act pursuant to their own interests. The main interest consists in solving all the existing problems. Formerly, the Central Asian Republics’ being part of the Soviet Union implied such a solution: protection against the external threats and fight against extremism, access to technologies and infrastructure, integration of the internal markets, humanitarian development, etc. At present the Central Asian governments seek a new way to solve all their problems. That explains why the Central Asian countries follow the multi-vector foreign policy. However, such a policy cannot be pursued for a long time, and sooner or later the governments will have to elect one of the strategic partners. The Russian government’s aim should be to address as many those issues as possible and propose to the Central Asian governments a solution that would be fair for Russia and its neighbors.
Today the Russian policy-makers do not seem to have realized that aim, to say nothing of its translating into reality. The bilateral relations and integration processes as part of the CIS, EAEC, SCO and CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) projects are slow. There is no comprehensive program of political, economic, academic and humanitarian cooperation with the Central Asian countries. No Russian grant organization goes in Central Asia in a systematic way. The mutual support for political and business initiatives is weak with rare exceptions. In terms of strategic interests, Russia’s policy in the region is reactive.
The Russian diplomacy’s tools in the former Soviet Union are limited to the solution of the energy issues, when the possible access to Russia’s infrastructure is used as an effective key factor of the talks. However, as alternative transportation routes appear, the view of Central Asia’s severe dependence on Russia’s infrastructure changes. The rejection of the “pipeline swagger” in the near future will serve Russia’s long-term interests in the region.
It is also important to stop being guided by the late Soviet model when carrying out the joint projects in the sphere of economy and military cooperation. It is impossible to return to the previous imperial model of relations. Russia can be one of the parties solving the region’s problems. Our proposals must be diverse and competitive. If we lose the competition, Russia will have to conform to the other actors’ rules.
The article by Elena YATSENKO was published in the Russian Business Daily “Vedomosti” on September 5, 2007.
September 7, 2007
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