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UZBEKISTAN HAS FIXED THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DATE
ABDUMANNOB POLAT,
Independent consultant, Washington, USA
On September 18, Uzbekistan’s Central Election Committee announced that the presidential election will be held on December 23, 2007. I believe that this decision is an ordinary event. There was a misunderstanding because of discrepancies between the laws and the Constitution, which made it possible to hold the election either in January 2008, or in December 2007. According to the Constitution, the presidential elections should have taken place in December 2006. The Constitution does not provide for another decision. The presidential term expired in January 2007, and, in accordance with the Law on the Presidential Elections, the election is to be held no later than December, 2007. However, according to the same Constitution, the President is elected for a term of 7 years, not of 7 years and 11 months.
The second scenario implied turning a blind eye to this Article of the Constitution, but observing the Law on the Presidential Elections. Since last year President Islom Karimov did not hold early election, the second scenario had to be chosen.
Another legal issue is that Article 90 of the Uzbek Constitution reads that “the same person cannot be elected as President of the Republic of Uzbekistan for two terms in succession”. Islom Karimov was elected for a term of 5 years in 1991 and 2000 and twice his term of office was prolonged. The Uzbek authorities believe that after each constitutional amendment, Karimov is firstly elected as President pursuant to the “new” Constitution. Even Askar Akayev (who was much more liberal than Islom Karimov) did the same things in Kyrgyzstan (he was elected as President in 1991, 1996 and then once again).
In my opinion, Islom Karimov will nominate himself again and be reelected for the next term. Most probably, the President will choose his competitor and will cede him as many votes as he will find appropriate. The election will show once again that Islom Karimov is not going to resign. Islom Karimov has a lot of ill-wishers in Uzbekistan and abroad. The economic situation in the country is difficult. Under the circumstances, transfer of power cannot guarantee Karimov safety. He is not willing to flee the country, like former Kyrgyzstan's president Askar Akayev did.
Islom Karimiv might prepare his daughter, Gulnara Karimova for the presidency. But it is not worth guessing when he will hand over his power. It is wild guesses usually made by many experts. Here only facts may be relied on. But we have scant information about Uzbekistan and its elites. We cannot say exactly what attitude they have towards Islom Karimov.
Apart from that, the President’s successor has to be prepared. Islom Karimov’s daughter has no serious experience in state affairs so far. For the time being she controls quite big business in Uzbekistan. Before nominating Gulnara as his successor, he must appoint her to high state posts, like former President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev did (with his son Ilham) and until recently Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev – with his daughter Dariga. It is worth saying that at present Islom Karimov does not have a son-in-law with a bad reputation, like former Nursultan Nazarbayev’s son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev.
Besides, nobody knows how long Islom Karimov or his successor (whether it will be his daughter or somebody else) will manage to remain in power. If mass actions take place in several cities simultaneously, Islom Karimov or his successors are unlikely to be able to suppress them. All in all, today Islom Karimov has no reason to hand over his power to a successor.
In the same way, I would not take a risk to forecast that the power in Uzbekistan can change as a result of a “color” revolution. Any occasion can trigger this process and it may not be connected with the elections, although the elections are a powerful spur to it.
My prognosis is that there will be no mass actions in Tashkent during or after the December election, as it was in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. For even the Kazakh opposition that unites many influential policy-makers who worked in the government agencies in the late 1990s and the first years of this century, is well-financed and has broader opportunities provided than in Uzbekistan failed to do so.
The Uzbek secular opposition is poor, it looks to the West for financial and diplomatic support. It can take not more than 150-200 people to the streets. The Uzbek Islamic opposition, both armed and civilian, is much stronger than the secular one.
The USA will not favor the opposition. Of course, the Department of State, EU, OSCE will declare that the elections were far from being democratic. But the declarations won’t be followed by any moves.
As regards Islom Karimov’s foreign policy, he has tried to pursue the multi-vector policy. At the same time, Islom Karimov hesitated in his choice between different centers of power much more than his regional counterparts. Islom Karimov made more efforts to improve his relations with the West than his regional counterparts did. Uzbekistan has a better chance than its neighbors to dissociate itself from Moscow. But, in all fairness, Russia’s influence is still strong in Uzbekistan, this country has long-term historical, cultural and economic connections with Russia. About 8 percent of the Uzbekistan’s citizens are Russians, besides there are many Russian-speaking people. Hundreds of thousands, or maybe, several millions of the Uzbeks work in Russia.
Islom Karimov has sought to weaken Moscow’s influence and establish good relations with the USA. But even when Uzbekistan’s relations with the USA were at their best, Washington’s influence in the region was weaker than that of Moscow. The rapprochement with the USA was a tendency. The same thing is true of China, although China is much more interested economically in Uzbekistan and in the region than the West is.
One cannot say that Uzbekistan has become Russia’s “younger brother”. Islom Karimov is afraid that Moscow will become still more influential in the region, he is afraid of its influence on economy, of its efforts to interfere in Uzbekistan’s domestic policy and the successor issue, so he tries to keep a balance. That’s why he is interested in the cooperation with China.
It is necessary to realize that the major generator of the multi-vector policy is the U.S. President George Bush, rather than Russia or China. His policy makes other countries look for allies. The USA and Europe virtually forced Islom Karimov to maintain good relations with Moscow and Beijing.
September 21, 2007
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