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“EUROPEAN MARCH” TOOK PLACE IN BELARUS
ALIAKSANDR FIADUTA,
Political scientist, former Head of the Social and Political Information Department of the Belarusian President’s Administration, Minsk
It is hard to say what objectives the organizers of the opposition “European March”, held on October 14, pursued and what results they wanted to achieve. The only thing they did is to get together and go into the streets of Minsk. In this respect, their objective was achieved – about five thousand people took part in the March. The people went into the streets.
On the other hand, there is a question who participated in the action and why. The opposition party members went into the streets to show that Belarus’ opposition still exists. The voters did not join the March. Neither did the young people. This indicates that the opposition is weak politically. Now there is nothing else left for the Belarusian opposition to do, but to organize the street processions. This form of political action is quite futile because it does not add electorate to the opposition.
Sometimes such actions give cause for journalists to spread information but only if during a meeting the authorities use force. Should any of the March participants be beaten, everybody would speak about that. But the arrests had been completed a day before the action. Thus the authorities are changing their public image in the eyes of the West.
The opposition is in two minds whether to change its public image too, or to improve its relations with the authorities. However the government does not regard the opposition as its partner. A political force supported by mere five thousand is not regarded as a partner. Only those who are of danger should be counteracted. And the opposition is not dangerous.
It means that Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime won’t be changed through the opposition’s coming to power. It is impossible to change the power peacefully, by holding the elections. It follows that the regime can be only overthrown with the whole country sliding into political crisis. Aliaksandr Lukashenka does not care about five thousand protesters. He is concerned if the state can pay a good salary to hundreds of thousands of employees of the Belarusian government enterprises, raise pensions etc. Otherwise, he will have to face a crisis.
That’s why Aliaksandr Lukashenka should have transferred power in the last elections, when he was at the peak of his popularity and when he could nominate his successor. Even now this scenario can take place. But the question is whether Aliaksandr Lukashenka has time to do that.
As regards the relations between Russia and Belarus, at present Russia has to address challenges in its home politics – parliamentary and presidential elections. If to speak about the relations between the Belarusian authorities and the Russian company Gazprom, every year a new price agreement is to be signed.
The situation with the Northern Flow project is similar. Aliaksandr Lukashenka has repeatedly said that more capacities should be built that would supply Russia’s gas to Europe through Belarus. And now Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s proposal to construct the second branch of Yamal-Europe pipeline has become more acute in the light of the conflict between Russia and Estonia that gave impetus to the Northern Flow project, playing into Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s hands.
October 19, 2007
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