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UKRAINE SIGNED THE PROTOCOL ON JOINING THE WTO

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VITALY BALA,
Director of the Situations Modeling Agency, Kyiv

The signing of the protocol on Ukraine’s joining the WTO crowned the fifteen-year history of the negotiations. As the process was long-standing, the entry effect is a little slurred out in Ukraine.

Apart from that, no large-scale information campaign on Ukraine’s joining the WTO was conducted in the country. Therefore, the Ukrainians do not understand very well what is in store for them and which advantages and disadvantages for Ukraine the entry conceals. Nevertheless, the campaign should be conducted. Here President Viktor Yushchenko, his Secretariat and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko have interests in common.

In the course of the campaign Yushchenko will try to ascribe all the entry’s merits to himself. Tymoshenko, who is looking to become the next President, will have to join that campaign too.

It is another matter that the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, whose work is still barely plodding along, is to ratify the WTO entry. It is possibly that during the voting the President and the Prime Minister’s opinions will coincide again. The ratification may begin the information campaign.

But the opponents, who can seek to become more popular speaking about the negative aspects of the entry, have no trump cards. For example, leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych says that Ukraine’s agriculture will suffer as a result of Ukraine’s joining the WTO. But he has no forcible arguments to substantiate his position since the five-year transition period extends to Ukraine’s agriculture.

As regards the WTO factor in the negotiations with Russia (the visits of President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko to Moscow are scheduled for February), Yushchenko has stated that Ukraine would not put obstacles in Russia’s way to the WTO. I believe that the use of this factor by the Ukrainian politicians would be a strategic mistake for them.

The economic issues of the cooperation between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to become politicized. The Ukrainian big business may try to reduce or lift the trade barriers from Russia to supply its products. But this is a purely economic issue. Apart from that, after Ukraine’s joining the WTO the big Ukrainian industry will be able to get to new markets. It is also important that the Ukrainian and Russian businesses are getting closer and the major mergers and takeovers are possible. So, the Russian and Ukrainian businesses may combine their efforts to conquer new markets.

If to speak about the scheme of the gas supplies, unfortunately, this economic issue has become political long ago and it is the trump card during the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian sides. In my opinion, Ukraine must not connect the gas issue with its joining the WTO. I find the tough statements made by Ukraine’s Premier Tymoshenko on gas rash. I believe that President Yushchenko should work out the single policy, the common approach and carry on negotiations in terms of new mutually beneficial proposals not issue ultimatums. One should not deal a fatal blow raising the question of a mediator RosUkrEnergo (the monopoly supplier of gas to Ukraine). This is conducive to more severe problems in the relations between the two countries. The “war of statements” is in the interest of few people in Russia and Ukraine who have to do with the business. But it is an impasse. It means that here the President and the Prime Minister are not at variance, there are differences between Tymoshenko and the people from the President’s team who issue ultimatums.

There is another important point here. In principle, Ukraine can satisfy the gas requirements for the common consumers at the expense of its own resources. And the WTO entry, which provides broader opportunities for the Ukrainian business, would allow the government to sustain less heavy losses if Russia continues to increase the gas prices.

I doubt that Ukraine’s joining the WTO will expedite the country's entry to the EU and NATO.

February 6, 2008




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