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THE REASONS FOR THE GEORGIAN OPERATION IN SOUTH OSSETIA
ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV,
Head of the International Relations Department, Gafgaz University, Baku
When holding the military operation in South Ossetia the Georgian government tried to solve the problem of territorial integrity.
On August 8, the Georgian troops entered the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali and announced the recovery of Georgia’s territorial integrity. It was also announced that the instrument of surrender would be signed with the separatist authorities of the self-proclaimed republic of South Ossetia.
The same day Russia brought its troops into South Ossetia through the Roksky Tunnel, the only route connecting Russia's territory North Ossetia with South Ossetia. Russia said it had started a military operation to defend the Russian citizens (previously Russia had granted its passports to local citizens of South Ossetia and Abkhazia) and peacemaking forces.
About 150 Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers marched into South Ossetia. Russian airforce started bombing the Georgian firing positions. On August 9, the units of the 58th Russian army entered the city of Tskhinvali and forced out the Georgian military. The subunits of the 76th airborne division were redeployed from the Russian city of Pskov to Tskhinvali. As a result of the Russian military operation, the Georgian troops were forced out from the entire territory of South Ossetia.
On August 12, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev decided to stop the operation, as its goals had been achieved. For all that, the armies continued to clash with each other in Georgia.
The Western countries acted as mediators in the conflict settlement. President of France Nicolas Sarkozy offered Moscow and Tbilisi a cease-fire plan. The U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Tbilisi.
On August 15, President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili signed the agreement on cease-fire in South Ossetia, elaborated by Sarkozy and Medvedev in Moscow.
To explain Georgia’s decision to start the military operation in South Ossetia let's clear up the motivation of Mikheil Saakashvili’s government. Mikheil Saakashvili and his associates, who came to power in 2003 as a result of the Rose Revolution inspired by the West, enjoyed wide support of the Georgian population.
The Georgians believed that Saakashvili’s government would solve many their problems. The new government had to improve the Georgian economy, which had been in decline since the breakup of the Soviet Union. And Mikheil Saakashvili’s main task was to resolve the conflicts in the separatist regions of the country.
The first Saakashvili’s success was dismissal of Aslan Abashidze, leader of Ajarian Autonomous Republic. The next step was to subdue the self-proclaimed republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The euphoria of success gripped all the Georgian society. I remember the arguments of the Georgian political scientists during the personal conversations with them immediately after the Ajarian events.
However, soon it became clear that Mikheil Saakashvili was not able to unite the country on his own because Russia remained a patron of those unrecognized territories, while the USA and other Western states were not ready to conflict with Moscow.
All the same, Mikheil Saakashvili expected to recieve support from the Western countries. Georgia openly stated that it would like to be integrated into the Euro-Atlantic organizations. Most of the government buildings hung the EU flags as well as Georgian ones.
In 2006 the relations between Georgia and Russia became worse. Russia established a ban on Georgian wine export. The natural gas price for Georgia grew from $50 in 2005 to $235 in 2007. If Azerbaijan did not begin to extract its own gas, Georgia would be in serious difficulty.
But the U.S. government continued to support Georgia's economy. U.S. President George Bush was on an official visit to Georgia, which was an exceptional case for a former Soviet republic. Though, as regards the settlement of the territorial conflicts, the USA gave only moral support to the Georgian government. Saakashvili was concerned about that. The refusal to give NATO Membership Action Plan to Georgia at NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008 was a momentous event.
Since late autumn, Mikheil Saakashvili has been getting less popular in Georgia. At the end of 2007 he faced strong opposition and even had to impose a state of emergency on November 8, 2007, after the mass protest rallies had taken place. On January 5, 2008 the early presidential election were held in Georgia, Saakashvili could win only 56% of the vote (in 2003 over 80% of the population voted for him).
Some of Saakashvili’s adherents started to go across to the opposition. The relations between Mikheil Saakashvili and his former companion-in-arms Irakli Okruashvili deteriorated sharply. Okruashvili accused President Saakashvili of corruption, assassination of Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania in February 2005 and of intention to kill famous businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili.
Another leader of the Rose Revolution Nino Burjanadze, who had been the Chairperson of the Georgian Parliament, refused to participate in the parliamentary elections in May 2008 and stopped supporting Saakashvili.
Now the international atmosphere is changing not in favor of Mikheil Saakashvili. The USA will see a new leader after November 2008 presidential election. A democratic candidate can win the election. This may change the policy followed by the USA towards the regimes, which were formed in the post-Soviet space after the color revolutions. Apart from that, the U.S. officials said that their main interests in the Caucasus concerned the security issues of the regional energy projects.
In this sense one can say that holding the military operation in South Ossetia, Georgia staked everything. Saakashvili realized that if he did nothing, the Georgian voters as well as the West could cease to back him.
f the military operation in South Ossetia had been successful, Saakashvili would have again recieved wide support from the Georgian population and his country could have been integrated into the Western community.
August 26, 2008
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