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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN AZERBAIJAN. DO WE FACE THE REVISION OF THE RUSSO-AZERBAIJANI RELATIONS IN THE XXI CENTURY?

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SOYUN SADYKOV,
President of the federal national and cultural autonomy of the Azerbaijanis of Russia, Moscow

I believe that the October 15, 2008 Azerbaijani presidential elections will be held calmly. There is no alternative to incumbent President Ilham Aliyev. The opposition failed to enlist the people’s support. The pre-election situation in Azerbaijan is reminiscent of that in Russia, which indicates we are alike.

Will Azerbaijan’s policy towards Russia be changed after the elections? I do not think it will occur in the near future. Azerbaijan has a difficult problem that Russia has not solved yet. This is the problem of the Nagorno-Karabakh territories, occupied by Armenia during the collapse of the USSR.

We know what happened in Georgia in this August. Conflicts should not be frozen for a long time because somebody can try to unfreeze them to his advantage.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s issue cannot be equated with Nagorno-Karabakh’s one. The Ossetians and Abkhazians have their own national territories, while Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijan’s area that was occupied by the Armenian troops.

So, Russia should take certain steps to maintain good relations with Azerbaijan. President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev stated about Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity during his recent visit to Baku. Russia has sufficient leverage over Armenia to solve this problem and it should take the initiative. 

Azerbaijan is a very tolerant state. The country has 450 Russian schools, which are financed from the state budget, many Russian-language mass media work in the country, etc. 

The Azerbaijani people will not allow the authorities to turn away from Russia. But if Moscow does not solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, or Turkey, the EU or the USA do that instead of Russia, then Azerbaijan will change its policy towards Moscow. Baku’s breaking with Moscow would weaken Russia’s influence not only in the Caucasus, but also in Iran and Central Asia.

The material is based on Soyon Sadykov’s address to the Russian Agency of International Information RIA Novosti at the round table “Presidential election in Azerbaijan. Do we face the revision of the Russo-Azerbaijani relations in XXI century?”

October 10, 2008




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