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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE. CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
VADIM KARASYOV, MIKHAIL POGREBINSKY, VITALY PORTNIKOV,
Kyiv
Vadim KARASYOV, Director of the Institute of Global Strategies, Kyiv
I believe that on the threshold of the parliamentary elections in Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko bloc is likely to appear. It is said that Our Ukraine is going to become an independent party and to dissociate itself from the Presidential Secretariat. But this is just a tactical game as it is not known yet what structure the bloc would have and what parties it would consist of. The questions are who would head the election campaign headquarters, who would manage the electoral process, etc.
How to build the election strategy of the new bloc? If Viktor Yushchenko bloc includes independent forces, the question is what the main subject of its election campaign would be. As regards Our Ukraine, those are Ukraine’s joining NATO, the Caucasian events, in other words, geopolitics and geopolitical positioning.
If we are talking about other constituents of the bloc (for example, whether a new force led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk will join Viktor Yushchenko bloc), I would ask if it is appropriate to take part in such an ideological campaign. Each constituent of the bloc also may choose its own subject of the election campaign.
It is also unclear if the bloc should base its election campaign on the economic issues since a lot of problems arise here. The Party of Regions criticizes the “orange” authorities for the economic failures more and more. The financial and economic crisis makes it possible to conduct such a campaign. Unlike NATO, this subject concerns the majority of the Ukrainian people.
All in all, currently there is a number of questions about the organizational, electoral and ideological structure of the future election campaign of Yushchenko bloc
Mikhail Pogrebinsky, director of Center of Political Studies and Conflictology, Kyiv
In my opinion, Viktor Yushchenko bloc would be a marginal political force without any prospects. I think that the elections that were called by the man, who is out of touch, can be expected to mobilize all the sane people.
Those elections will not change correlation of forces in the Parliament. It is possible that the Party of Regions together with the Communist Party of Ukraine and Volodymyr Lytvyn Bloc will have slightly more seats in the Verkhovna Rada. Does this mean that they can control the Ukrainian economy? No, it doesn’t, while Viktor Yushchenko is Ukraine’s President and unless the Ukrainian Constitution changes.
The economists tell the society very little about the real economic situation in Ukraine. I am referring not only to finances. First of all, there is a need to immediately establish the National Salvation Council that would include all major policy-makers, except such marginal politicians as Yushchenko and his team, and eminent Ukrainian academics who could settle this grave situation with the participation of the Verkhovna Rada till the new Parliament is elected. This issue is of more importance than the forthcoming elections.
I think that the authorities fail to realize that the country faces a catastrophe from which a great deal of Ukrainians will suffer unless necessary measures are taken in the near future.
The USA, Europe and Russia seek to overcome the financial crisis. While the President of Ukraine was speaking about tourism in Italy, which indicates that the leader of the country is insane. If it is impossible to impeach Yushchenko, we should, at least, ignore him. There is Cabinet, National Bank and there are politicians who are in charge of millions of Ukrainians.
VITALY PORTNIKOV, “Svoboda” broadcasting station’s observer, Kyiv
After the President had made his statement about the Verknovna Rada dissolution, my Polish and Russian colleagues puzzled me asking the same question. The question was not how the society had reacted to the President’s decision about the Parliament dissolution, they asked me how the society had reacted to the facts that the statement was not shown live and that the President left the video record in the television studio and went from the country during the extremely deep political crisis.
When I told them that the Ukrainian society had reacted to that in no way, my colleagues again asked me the same question: “does Ukraine have political culture”? Our country has no political culture.
So, we have no reason to accuse Yushchenko and his entourage of lack of professionalism. But we can talk about the responsibility of the Ukrainian political elite in principle. Democracy is not only institutional procedures. We are convinced that the crucial thing in a country is free expression of popular will. But in many democratic countries people vote for dictators freely.
This is not a condition for creation of a normal developing society. Society itself and political elites should be responsible for their actions. Now there is general outrageous irresponsibility in Ukraine. Some want to keep their powers and, being with the government in coalition, do their utmost to prevent the government from working. Others want to get more power and block the presidential activities.
Still others want to keep intact their funds, which they have received in an unknown way, so they do not allow the constitutional majority coalition to be created. And still others offer their services only in exchange for certain posts and preferences. That happens against a background of the economic crisis in the country, which will make the majority of the population turn a blind eye to the political problems in question.
The problems can be solved simply. I do not consider it necessary to establish the National Salvation Council or anything like it. Of course, the elite represented by the President, Cabinet and Parliament should seek to settle the crisis rather than hold the early elections.
By the way, the elite caused this crisis in many respects: by begging for cheap Russian gas, Ukraine’s manufactured metal that has fallen in price and does not make a profit any more, irresponsible social payments, lack of Stabilization Fund that could be used in case of a crisis, etc.
Those people drove the country to the crisis, but they could have realized that they need not share the power because there will not be any power in Ukraine at all in the near future. They should at least think how to save themselves, since the population will not need them soon. But they do not think about that because they are not able to think strategically.
I would like to add that all those people are not managers. The first team includes those who were efficient under former President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma but only in terms of misappropriating the public funds. The second one did not succeed in doing that so they declared themselves to be democrats and went across to the opposition. But those politicians failed to change the system and cannot govern it.
There is a question about the situation after the elections. But why should it change? If the elections outcome is about the same as in the last elections (the public opinion polls show that), the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine will not have the majority to build a coalition.
Then two coalitions can be built - Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine or Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions. But why should the coalition of Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions be built after the elections, if this cannot be done now? How will it be explained and how will it work? That means that after the elections we will be in a new crisis against a background of the economic one.
What is the difference between Germany and Ukraine? The German politicians are engaged in politics and defend the national interests. The Ukrainian politicians misappropriate public funds. The average German political scientist works out the political party programs that are implemented. In Ukraine even the most outstanding political scientist helps his employers to conceal their thefts and corruption from the society.
The material is based on the experts’ addresses to the round table held as Moscow-Kyiv television bridge “Early Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Current developments” organized by the Russian Agency of International Information RIA Novosti on October 10.
October 17, 2008
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