JOHN MARONE, KYIV
WANTED: UKRAINIAN DARK HORSE CANDIDATE
Ukrainian politics have been a three-horse race ever since the country’s ethereal Orange Revolution. Some have described this race as democracy – wild and exciting, if not fair or progressive. But with internal divisions, relations with Russia and economic despair worse than ever, most Ukrainians would just like to harness one of these snorting beasts to some vehicle of palpable development, to make him do something useful.
That not likely to happen, due primarily to the indomitable nature of the Ukrainian steppe steed, many a voter and even more a political analyst has secretly hoped for the appearance of dark horse candidate in the run up to the forthcoming presidential poll. Attitudes toward the best known candidates – President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych– are in fact so low that a decent donkey or uncontroversial mule might very well satisfy public expectations.
Unfortunately, all we have seen so far in terms of an alternative to the dynamic trio is the bespectacled Arseny Yatsenyuk, a former parliament speaker and foreign minister whose general appearance reminds one more of a smart rooster or stubborn sheep but certainly not a swift footed stallion.
Before the revolution, the country was run by his un-holiness, President Leonid Kuchma. During the revolution, there was the epic struggle between Yanukovych (Donetsk’s version of Darth Vader) and Yushchenko, who liked to be called the messiah in those days. And with the addition of Ukrainian Evita Yulia Tymoshenko, it’s now a ménage a trios.
Of course, there is always a leftist or two in the race pack, weighed down by their anachronistic ideologies and often pushed over the finish line by a team of disgruntled peasants. This year features a former defense minister as well, who for all intents and purposes should be heading the veterinarian squad, but for some reason decided to run with the rest.
So when is the dark horse going to show up - sleek, sexy and fast? The race is about to start. More importantly, where is he going to come from, and who’s going to pay for his oats?
Rather than sifting through the corruption strewn aisles of the nation’s parliament, or imagining the emergence of some spunky trade union leader, or praying for an Orthodox prophet, the easiest place to look is north east, to Moscow.
Everything that’s there eventually migrates to Ukraine. At least that’s what the dark-horse theorists seem to think. Russia’s Vladimir Putin provides an (eerily) glowing example. The Russia of the 1990s was also plagued by disorder and an identity crisis under un-anonymous alcoholic Boris Yeltsin.
But after a few Moscow apartment buildings were bombed, launching a second Chechen war, former KGB man Putin came trotting into the Kremlin like a neo-Soviet stud. We all know what happened after that.
The question is whether the same thing can happen in Ukraine, possibly perpetrated by the same people. To the Kremlin, Kyiv is a wayward wench who needs to get back into the kitchen and stop flirting with rich foreigners. The Slavic couple is divorced, but Mr. Moscow is possessive, and Miss Kyiv isn’t above asking for occasional alimony in the form of subsidized gas.
Up until now, jealous Moscow has contented itself with the fact that it can outspend any Western suitor. American boyfriends are sensitive to woman’s rights, and Europeans can be real charmers, but diamonds (i.e. cheap gas) are a girl’s best friend. The problem is that the Russian playboy is now short on cash and thus particularly insecure about romantic competition. This is where most such relationships usually turn ugly.
The list of fears in Miss Kyiv’s head range from the seizure of Crimea to the secession of Donbass. And by the way, those sweet talking Americans and Europeans have been slow in making a firm commitment.
For those who doubt the admittedly unlikely scenario in which Russia would install its own dark horse in Kyiv via a putsch, make no mistake about it: The Kremlin is not above violence. This violence could manifest itself equally effective in the form of nasty riots or acts of terrorism, with the result being a strong Ukrainian president loyal to Moscow.
And with Ukraine already divided along language, religion, region, etc., connecting the violence to the Kremlin would be complicated if not pointless. The West’s recent record for standing up to tyranny speaks for itself. After all, did the Moscow apartment bombings inhibit US President George Bush from later calling Mr. Putin his buddy?
Those hoping for a dark horse candidate in the upcoming Ukrainian elections might get a darker horse than they wanted, which may not even be a candidate. As the race stands now, President Yushchenko is in last place before even coming out of the gates. Ms. Tymoshenko has lost a lot of her sheen (as well as her braided mane), but she has the political instincts of a thoroughbred. Yanukovych, the front runner, is known as much for his sensational comebacks to power as he is for subsequently losing that very same power due to inexplicable political clumsiness.
But, as odd it may seem in the even odder world of Ukrainian politics, each of the above three candidates has an equal chance of becoming the nation’s next president. Election day is more than four months away – an eternity in Kyiv. But by this very same logic, it is then equally plausible that none of these three will win and that a successful dark horse candidate will emerge. If one were to ask the average Ukrainian voter, many of whom end up voting for “none of the above”, the dark horse would likely seem a very attractive alternative, a hope for the change that never materialized after the Orange Revolution.
John Marone, a columnist of Eurasian Home website, Kyiv, Ukraine
September 1, 2009
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