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THE GEORGIAN TIMES: OKRUASHVILI KEEPS EVERYONE GUESSING
Tensions are hitting a high in Tbilisi, as Georgian politicians are expecting the comeback of a former political heavyweight in Saakashvili’s government, ex Defense Minister, Irakli Okruashvili. Okruashvili quit his post without much noise, but talks about his comeback are stirring up anxiety. Politicians and media are now speculating who will join Okruashvili, whether he will be on the right, the left, or somewhere in the middle, and whether he will oppose President Saakashvili too or just the National Movement ruling party.
Nicknamed the ‘war minister’ in Georgian media and a hawk in the Russian media, Okruashvili said after resignation that he left his heart with the Georgian army. He said no to the position of Economy Minister and vowed he would come back.
Although he has not shown in the Georgian political arena since his resignation, Irakli Okruashvili still enjoys widespread popularity. Furthermore, Georgian people are eager to see something new on the scene. Will he set up a political party? Who will be his political partners? Does he have any chances of victory in the presidential and parliamentary elections? These questions are on the minds of Georgian newspapers and citizens. Now and then, TV Channels and newspapers report about Okruashvili’s plans and try to get some answers from behind-the-scene consultants. Despite their attempts to get Okruashvili to reveal information, so far he has been tight-lipped about his political plans. The ex Defense Minister might be planning to use the element of surprise during his comeback with the same success as he did when he left the political arena.
As Okruashvili’s party is emerging, we are starting to see the parties regroup. Both the opposition and the electorate would like to see Irakli Okruashvili challenge the ruling National Movement party and sweep opposition into the parliament of 2008.
“It’s premature to talk about whether Irakli Okruashvili will serve as one,” says Ghia Nodia a political analyst and Chairman of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, in a telephone interview with The Georgian Times. “Although the people and oppositions have big expectations the question is whether or not Okruashvili will meet these expectations. A year ago, the opposition also pinned high hopes on Salome Zourabichvili but the Georgian politicians sighed with frustration as she refused to join them and lost in the elections. Okruashvili in these terms may be having more chances than Zourabichvili had. Okruashvili is familiar with the political life and knows better the rules of the games. Besides this, he has more money in his wallet. But Okruashvili has some other sides as well… Nontheless, Okruashvili does have a chance of becoming a key opposition-minded figure,” continued Nodia.
As Rustavi 2 reported last week, “Georgia without Saakashvili and National Movement” is going to be the slogan of Okruashvili’s party. Politicians likely to join his party will be officially unveiled in the second half of September and the former Defense Minister will be talking about his political parties himself.
Gia Tsagareishvili, a former member of the Industry Saves Georgia party, will be one of them. However, he is taciturn when asked when the party presentation will be held, what its direction is going to be, and who will be its political partners.
“The details will be publicized when it is necessary. It is one of the strategies of the new political party not to make any premature statements. The party will bring together the people of all professions, including the journalists. I cannot comment now who these journalists are,” Gia Tsagareishvili told GT.
Kakha Kukava, a member of the Conservative Party, stipulates that these journalists are Rustavi 2’s former anchors Natia Lazashvili and Nana Lezhava. The two stopped working at the station in protest of the dismissal of their friend and General Director, Nika Tabatadze, a year ago and have not appeared in the media since then. “Nothing is clear yet. I think that the making of the party is just an idea rather than a reality,” says Kakha Kukava.
The parliamentary elections of 2008 are not going to be an easy battle either for the government or opposition parties. Georgia will elect a smaller parliament next year – it will only have 150 members. Single-mandate deputies will take 50 seats and the remaining 100 mandates will go to those who will win in the proportional system. So the parties will have to cut their election lists. This is going to increase tensions among the parties since the people who want to get on these lists will outnumber the vacant seats. Given the bitter results of the local self-governance elections some opposition groups will try to join forces. However, even if they unite, the question remains of who will top the list of the unified opposition group. Some think that Okruashvili may take up this role. Others doubt entirely that Okruashvili’s party may be opposition-minded. Vakhtang Bolkvadze, a member of National Movement party, thinks that his appearance on the political arena will not make any difference and the National Movement will ‘keep building up Georgia as it does today.”
The Labour Party thinks that Okruashvili’s party will be pseudo-opposition. The New Rights agree saying Okruashvili is as equally unacceptable for them as Saakashvili. They deny flatly that they can cooperate with him in any way.
“I can say for sure that we will not allow any kinds of cooperation with Irakli Okruashvili. He is no better than Mikhail Saakashvili. I really doubt that he will become an oppositionist,” says New Rights’ Pikria Chikhradze.
The Republican Party is thought to be a likely partner because soon after Okruashvili quit his post as Defense Minister, the media reported that he was conducting consultations with the Republican Party.
In a talk with Georgia Times Davit Berdzenishvili, leader of the Republican Party said, “You can talk about possible cooperation with Okruashvili’s party only after this party has been established, only after its priorities, values and direction becomes clear.” However, this party is still seen as most probably partner of Okruashvili. Some even speculats that this partnership may compromise the alliance between the Conservators and the Republicans.
“The problem is that after the local self-governance elections the oppositions is in depression and is expecting some big event which will change the situation. This is perhaps why politicians have big and even exaggerated expectations about Okruashvili’s appearance. Another problem is that some opposition forces have unfriendly personal relations with Okruashvili and will not cooperate with him, especially because Okruashvili is not a democrat leader. Therefore, if Okruashvili appears on the scene every opposition political force will face a kind of temptation and at the same time a difficult choice – to cooperate or not with him. Therefore, this may cause a rift among the opposition parties,” says Nodia.
Some opposition politicians, like Konstantine Gamsakhurdia, leader of Liberty political movement, do not rule out that Okruashvili will oppose the National Movement but not President Saakashvili and we will see the situation somewhat similar to that in Russia.
“Okruashvili’s party may emerge as an opponent to National Movement party but it may be pursuing Mikhail Saakashvili’s policy, in a similar way as it is happening in Russia in the case of Edinaia Rosia [Unified Russia] and Spravedlivaia Rosia [A Just Russia]. You know, Spravedlivaia Rosia does have chances to enter parliament,” says Gamsakhurdia.
Political analyst Ghia Nodia thinks that if Irakli Okruashvili comes back to politics and sets up a party, then he will oppose both the National Movement and President Saakashviili: “In the present system it would be senseless if an opposition leader who has political ambitions and want to become leader, will not oppose Saakashvili. If Okruashvili opposes National Movement but not Saakashvili, he will lose the war.”
Nino Japaridze
“The Georgian Times”, September 3, 2007
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