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THE FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA: SOCIAL ATTITUDES

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ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi

The presidential and parliamentary elections in Georgia will take place in a year and a half. However, the voters’ attitudes and opinions about the policy pursued in the country are already in the process of shaping. It comes natural that those attitudes will significantly influence the election outcomes. The elections are considered to be crucial, given the importance of the current moment for the nation.

The public opinion polls show that the people’s attitudes are changing. Virtually all public opinion polls indicate that Georgians are not as enthusiastic about the “Rose Revolution” as they were before.

According to the public opinion poll conducted by the Georgian office of the U.S. International Republican Institute (IRI) in February 2007, if back in 2004 about 65% of the Georgian population believed that the country was moving in a right direction, in April 2006 only 39% held the same opinion. In 2007 the figure upped to 48%.

That poll revealed another notable tendency vividly indicating mentality and demands of the Georgian electorate. Most respondents regarded the uninterrupted power supply, new roads building, beautification of the capital and creation of the patrol police as the government’s major achievements by 2007. Of course, such attitudes of the population make the ruling party’s task easier. The ruling party is at home with imitating the development boom in the country before the elections.

Meanwhile, the polls suggested other trends that are to be alarming both for the ruling party and the opposition before the elections. One of these trends is increasing disappointment of the Georgian society in the state institutions.

According to the poll carried out by Caucasian Research Resource Center(CRRC) in 2006, if 34% of Georgia’s population trusted the Georgian court and judiciary back in 2004, in 2005 the trust decreased to 25%, and in 2006 it fell up to almost catastrophic level of 15%. In 2005, 65% of those polled had confidence in the law enforcement agencies, in particular, police, but in 2006 the figure dropped to 39%.

It is the parliament that has been dramatically losing the society’s confidence. The poll conducted by CRRC indicated that in 2004 47% of the respondents trusted the parliament, in 2005 – 33%, and in 2006 – only 22%.

Several public opinion polls conducted independently of each other show that the society has much less confidence in President Mikheil Saakashvili. In 2004 96% of the population supported him, by 2007 the figure has come down to 48-52%. For all that, Saakashvili is still remaining unchallenged leader in terms of his popularity, as the votes of the people who were disappointed in him did not go to any opposition politician. The polls indicate that many of the voters are waiting for a new and strong leader who could compete with Saakashvili as an equal.

According to IRI, during the elections the majority (53-60%) of the Georgian population still prefers to vote for the party leaders rather than for the parties themselves, and this tendency is typical of the last three years.

Therefore, it is safe to suppose that the forthcoming elections will be a competition between the party leaders.

August 1, 2007




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