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IRAKLI OKRUASHVILI PROVES THAT ONE’S AS GOOD AS NONE IN POLITICS

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ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Civil Society Program Coordinator, the Eurasia Foundation, Georgia Office

The sudden transfer of Georgian Minister of Defense Irakli Okruashvili, who is considered to be the main “hawk” in Mikheil Saakashvili’s government, to the position of Minister of Economic Development has made the mass media do the thinking.

Back in December, 2004 President Saakashvili pledged his presidential word that Okruashvili would remain Minister of Defense until Georgia entirely restores its territorial integrity. Breaking the promise and transferring Okruashvili to the other job on the eve of the independence referendum and the presidential elections in the self-proclaimed republic of South Ossetia, over which Okruashvili had publicly promised to extend George’s jurisdiction by 2007, shows that official Tbilisi has softened its positions.

The most likely reason for Saakashvili’s decision to transfer one of his closest adherents to a much less influential position may be his aspiration to kill several birds with one stone: to please Moscow before the CIS summit due to be held on November 29; to play up to the West that has a dislike for severe and unpredictable Okruashvili; to declare President’s adherence to peaceful settlement of the conflict; and to clip Okruashvili’s wings.

The latter ranked second to Saakashvili in the popularity rating of the Georgian politicians and was considered to be his potential rival. Some of the local analysts say that after head of the financial police David Kezerashvili, regarded to be one of Saakashvili’s associates, had been appointed Minister of Defense the President entirely restored his lost control over the Ministry of Defense.

Unlike his predecessor, Kezerashvili is quite predictable, not inclined to “giving surprises”, and above all, controllable.

The smooth neutralization of the ambitious and aggressive Okruashvili has dispelled the halo of power surrounding him. In reality, it was found that he has no serious political resources allowing him to become an independent policy-maker. The checks and balances, which, as in the case of any ruler, had naturally been formed under Saakashvili, made Okruashvili, who did not fit into the President’s team, a less important political figure. As Minister of Economic Development, Okruashvili is likely to come into collision with influential State Minister on Economic Reforms Kakha Bendukidze, which would be the next test of his proficiency. But on the other hand, having temporarily retreated Okruashvili might act according to the famous precept of the Japanese fight Jiu Jitsu: “To win by means of temporarily surrendering to circumstances”.

This change in the Georgian Defense Ministry took place against the backdrop of increasing tension and the probability of military clashes in the conflict zones of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The transition period, which is connected with adaptation of the inexperienced in the military science new Minister of Defense and with the unavoidable replacement of the former team, may weaken the Ministry’s operational capability for some time.

November 15, 2006




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