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GEORGIA IN THE RUN-UP TO NATIONAL ELECTIONS
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi
The relationship between Russia and Georgia which has been marked by tension and confrontations bears influence on Georgia’s political landscape and forthcoming national elections.
The Georgian Parliament is considering the constitutional amendment submitted by President Mikheil Saakashvili in order to hold the next presidential and parliamentary elections in Georgia simultaneously – during the period September 1 to December 31, 2008.
Mikheil Saakashvili was elected Georgian President for five years in January 2004. The pro-presidential National Movement Democratic Front got the constitutional majority in the Parliament that was elected for four years in March 2004. Now Saakashvili, who has made a decision to cut his presidential term by about 9 months, emphasizes that this is a one-time measure that will not apply to the next elections. The necessity to save money is produced as one of the main arguments in favor of the simultaneous elections. However, no figures have been made public about how much will be saved. Anyway money saving is not a cogent argument to change the Constitution, especially against the statements about tripling of the national budget. Symptomatically, the adoption of the constitutional amendment would automatically prolong the term of office of the Georgian MPs for, at least, seven months and become additional burden for the state budget.
To believe the authorities, the constitutional amendment should also be adopted because it is essential to simultaneously introduce all new constitutional guarantees (the amendment also curtails presidential powers) and to “return political process in Georgia into conventional constitutional framework”.
Despite the fact that the opposition parties and most non-governmental organizations believe that the amendment is at odds with democratic principles and it is an attempt of the ruling party to usurp the power, its examination in and outside the Parliament was surprisingly sluggish. For the time being, nothing points to counteraction. The amendment is likely to be easily adopted at the December Parliament session against the background of the New Year fuss.
Levan Ramishvili, head of the influential NGO “Liberty Institute”, was the most explicit about the genuine reasons behind the President’s initiative to hold the presidential and parliamentary elections simultaneously in 2008. The NGO is regarded as one of the main “architects” of the Rose revolution in Georgia. For its staff the Institute has served as a springboard to make a career in the top governmental agencies. Ramishvili, who, as many believe, is Saakashvili’s unofficial consultant and a member of his closest entourage, told the online edition “Civil Georgia” that the President’s initiative to hold the parliamentary and presidential elections at the same time bore a direct relation to the threat from Russia due to which Georgia’s nation “should be well-consolidated”.
As a matter of fact, Ramishvili has voiced the position of the party in power and said that “we should use the political capital earned in the local elections”. The October 2006 local elections became the ruling party’s landslide. According to Ramishvili, the authorities “do their utmost to avoid the scenario that occurred in Ukraine”. He accused Russia of preparing the coup d’etat or even direct military interference in Georgia in order to oust Saakashvili and change the country’s foreign policy. Ramishvili made public the point repeatedly argued by the ruling National Movement party about a “fifth column”, specifying that “nowadays Russia has many allies in the Georgian political parties. They cooperate with Moscow openly or secretly”.
Ramishvili also said that “the simultaneous presidential-parliamentary elections will be considered to be a referendum strengthening Georgia’s statehood and lowering the risk of Russia’s aggression”.
The party in power seems to be confident of its victory even now. I believe that this confidence is largely based only on the charismatic figure of Saakashvili who is second to nothing in the popularity ratings and is assured of his reelection as well.
However, the National Movement members of the puppet Parliament, which has discredited itself, are not so self-confident. Therefore, explanation of the political game played by the authorities is quite simple. The National Movement is going to become the parliamentary majority with the help of the still popular Saakashvili, who makes no secret that he will need the Parliament dominated by his staunch followers during the next presidential term.
The revealing statements recently made by Georgian Parliament Chairwoman Nino Burjanadze in her interview to the Ukrainian agency UNIAN slipped under the radar in Georgia. Burjanadze literally said the following: “To be honest, there is no serious alternative to Saakashvili and his team. This does not mean that the team is perfect. There still will be changes in the team”. Although, Burdjanadze is “sure that people should have a choice: a couple of worthy persons who realize the program of Georgia’s development”. As a matter of fact, Burjanadze, who is said to have presidential ambitions, does not reckon herself in those “worthy people”. “I know that many people will not believe that I do not want to stand for President”, said Burdjanadze emphasizing several times that she is not going to take part in the presidential elections.
Burdjanadze’s statements arouse, at least, three suppositions. It seems that she does not number herself among Saakashvili’s team any longer, she is not going to challenge Saakashvili in the forthcoming elections, but she would like to see new competitive political leaders as presidential hopefuls. Former Minister of Defense Irakli Okruashvili was thought to be one of the potential challengers before his scandalous resignation, which has shelved him as politician for a while.
Meanwhile, the opposition is regrouping the forces, which can result either in merging and consolidation of the existing political parties, or in emerging of new ones. A new political party National Forum, headed by Kakhaber Shartav, former employee of Georgia’s Embassy in Russia, has appeared recently and embarked on proactive fight with Saakashvili’s rule. One can suppose that over the next year and a half Georgia’s political landscape will witness significant change. Some dark horses may try to become political leaders in the near future – smart spin-doctors and proper financial aid will allow a person to become well-known in no-time.
December 13, 2006
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