Main page                           
Eurasian Home - analytical resource


RFE/RL: WITH OBAMA WIN, NATO PROSPECTS FOR UKRAINE, GEORGIA APPEAR TO SHIFT

Print version

Barack Obama's election may have prompted celebrations from Chicago to Nairobi. But in Tbilisi, it was disappointment that carried the day, with many Georgians ruefully contemplating what John McCain's defeat would mean for them.

"I was rooting for McCain because he favored a more rigorous policy toward Russia," said one man in the Georgian capital. Another added: "I was sure he would win. He was very strong in his dealings with Russia."

Since its Rose Revolution in 2003, Georgia -- like Ukraine, whose Orange Revolution brought democratic change to Kyiv the following year -- have frequently looked to the White House for support as they attempted to ease themselves out of the Russian fold and into NATO and other Western institutions.

At first this meant a close friendship with President George W. Bush, who was eager to tout the countries as success stories to bolster his wobbly legacy as a democracy-builder abroad.

More recently, it has meant strong ties with McCain, the Arizona senator who had hoped his foreign policy expertise -- including frequent advocacy on Georgia's behalf -- would secure a White House win.

It did not, however, appear to entertain the possibility of an Obama presidency -- despite suggestions by some observers that Obama's leadership style will ultimately prove the better fit for post-Soviet neighbors like Georgia and Ukraine.

Known Quantity

McCain, whose top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann was a lobbyist who counted Georgia among his clients, proved a stalwart ally during its August war with Russia. Aides reported McCain spoke to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili "every day" at the height of the conflict.

McCain was also an advocate of NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine and an unyielding critic of the Kremlin. He argued that Moscow should be kicked out of the G8 group of major industrialized nations for its aggressive behavior, and provocatively suggested a planned U.S. missile-defense system would offer protection against Russia as well as rogue states like Iran and North Korea.

For Georgia and Ukraine, McCain appeared to offer a continuation of the Bush mandate to push for NATO expansion, and tamp down Russia's influence in its post-Soviet backyard.

But critics say both Bush and McCain overstated the countries' actual democratic progress, and turned a blind eye to transgressions by officials, particularly in Georgia.

"Georgia had to meet NATO at least halfway," said Lincoln Mitchell, a professor of international politics at New York's Columbia University. "And what it got under the Bush administration was the constant message: 'Have bad elections? We'll cover for you. Make a foolish decision and get pulled into a war with Russia? Here's a billion bucks, don't worry about it. Keep cracking down on media and civil liberties? It's OK.'"

Georgia's lapses have proved especially egregious to rights-watchers who say the country is far from the beacon of democratic progress advocates like Bush and McCain make it out to be.

The country on November 7 marks the one-year anniversary since police used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse peaceful antigovernment protests and cracked down on nonstate media. Saakashvili was widely criticized for authorizing the violence, and was forced to call early elections the following year.

That incident prompted skeptical NATO member states to warn against fast-track membership for Tbilisi -- a sentiment that has hardened in the wake of the Russia-Georgian war, as questions continue to arise about Saakashvili's actions in the early days of the conflict.

NATO foreign ministers are due to revisit the question of providing Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia in December; without a consensus among major players like Germany and France, however, a deal is considered unlikely.

The Russia Question

Ukraine's path toward NATO is in some ways even more bedeviled than Georgia's.

While the country has been consistently praised for maintaining free elections and a flourishing press in the years since the Orange Revolution, fierce political infighting and divided loyalties between Russia and the West have kept the country at a virtual standstill.

Ukraine's lost momentum, like Georgia's democratic stumbles, have allowed Moscow, with its exploding resource wealth, to reassert authority over its former Soviet empire. Ukraine is home to millions of Russian speakers, and Moscow has threatened energy cutoffs and missile attacks to remind Kyiv of the dangers of looking West.

The country's beleaguered pro-Western forces now worry that McCain's defeat means the loss of a powerful protector, and the rise of an unknown quantity who may attempt to accommodate Moscow at the expense of countries like Ukraine.

"I've got the impression that Obama will conduct a traditional Democratic policy. That means that Russia will come first," said Yuriy Shcherbak, a former Ukrainian ambassador to Washington. "I think our prospects under an Obama government will be quite difficult. We don't know whether, and to what extent, Obama will be ready to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine."

Obama has acknowledged that Russia's "resurgence" is one of the major issues to be faced by the incoming U.S. administration.

Many worry Obama's pragmatic, consensus-building style will prove a losing tactic in dealing with the bluster of the Kremlin, whose first gesture after the U.S. elections was not an offer of congratulations but a threat to place missiles in Kaliningrad to counter the planned U.S. missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

A Cooler Head?

Others, however, argue it was McCain -- hotheaded and confrontational -- who would have proved the far greater risk in dealing with Russia.

"I believe there are many in Georgia who felt McCain would have been a stronger advocate for getting Georgia into NATO quickly," Mitchell said. "But McCain would never have been able to get them into NATO. I believe Georgia in the longer term probably should get into NATO. But it's only going to happen by building a coalition -- and Obama is far, far better prepared to do that than McCain."

Despite lingering doubts in Tbilisi and Kyiv, Obama indicated clear support for NATO expansion in a number of policy statements issued before the election.

One statement noted that Obama and his vice-presidential running mate, Senator Joseph Biden, "have consistently called for NATO Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia, and support their admission to NATO when they are ready."

The readiness of Georgia and Ukraine remains, however, a separate question -- particularly as Tbilisi continues to answer for its actions in the recent war with Russia.

Shalva Pichkhadze, who heads the Tbilisi-based organization "Georgia for NATO,” acknowledges the August conflict was a setback for Georgia's membership bid. But he says he believes the election of Barack Obama as the 44th U.S. president will not be a roadblock in Georgia's long-term membership goals.

"For me it's more important to what degree Georgia is doing everything it needs to in order to get into NATO,” he said. "As for Obama, if he supports NATO expansion -- and I think he will -- then Ukraine and Georgia are the likeliest candidates for entry. And we're doing everything we can so that it will be worth it to Obama and our allies to fight for our membership in NATO."

Back To Basics

Not all Georgians may measure Obama's worth in terms of his stance on NATO. Sozar Subari, the country's human rights ombudsman, has been a frequent critic of Saakashvili's leadership style and says the best contribution Obama could make would be to return Georgia's focus to questions governance and civil society.

In this, he says, he sees a notable difference between Obama and Georgia's "old friend" John McCain. 
 
"What I expect from Obama, as opposed to McCain, is this: more support for democracy in Georgia," Subari says. "I hope that the huge support for Georgia we saw with the previous administration will continue, but that more attention will be paid to democracy within Georgia."

Mitchell of Columbia University echoes the sentiment. "The best outcome of an Obama victory," he said, "would be that the Georgian-U.S. relationship is returned to normal."

Daisy SINDELAR

Marina VASHAKMAD of RFE/RL's Georgian Service and Maryana DRACH of RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service contributed to this report

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, November 07, 2008




Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Digest

04.10.2008

GALLUP.COM: UKRAINIANS MAY OPPOSE PRESIDENT’S PRO-WESTERN GOALS

A Gallup Poll found a strong majority of Ukrainians (65%) saying their leadership is taking the country in the wrong direction and only about one in six (16%) expressing confidence in their national government.


Expert forum
GEORGIAN OPPOSITION FACES NEW CHALLENGES

MERAB PACHULIA

19.11.2008

Over the past 10 months, most of opposition leaders have not enjoyed public support because they failed to solve important political issues and fell short of expectations of those who were strongly opposed to the government.


PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN THE USA

SERGEI ROGOV

11.11.2008

Barack Obama is an outstanding policy-maker. He was considered to be a classical marginal politician, who had nothing to do with the U.S. political establishment and who was not taken seriously. But he felt that the U.S. voters expected changes.


WILL THE US-RUSSIA RELATIONS BE RESTORED?

MARIA YULIKOVA

06.11.2008

Two months of blaming rhetoric between Russia and the US leaders, prompted by the August Caucasus crisis, nearly annihilated all the diplomatic achievements in the relationships between the two countries of the current millennium, and caused frustration among the diplomats on both sides.


DOES THE CIS HAVE THE FUTURE?

ALEXEY VLASOV, SERGEI MIKHEEV

09.10.2008

"Every year somebody says that the Commonwealth of Independent States is dead as organization. However, what do we need this organization for? Unfortunately, in many respects the question cannot be answered in an optimistic way", Alexey Vlasov.


RUSSIA-U.S. RELATIONS: WHAT NEXT?

DMITRY TRENIN, ALEXEI ARBATOV

06.10.2008

According to Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev, the armed conflict between Georgia and Russia has changed the world. This may be an exaggeration, but in fact the war has changed the Russian foreign policy, it deeply influences Russia’s economy and Moscow's relations with the West and the New Independent States.


"WEST SHOULD ADMIT THAT RUSSIA HAS ITS OWN INTERESTS"

ALEKSANDR RAHR

22.09.2008

The USA, where the presidential election campaign goes full swing, tries to take the toughest possible line with Russia. In many respects that is why some American government officials seek to support Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili.


RIVALRY BETWEEN THE USA AND RUSSIA FOR THE POST-SOVIET SPACE

VIKTOR KREMENIUK

04.09.2008

The Caucasian conflict indicates intense rivalry between the USA and Russia for the post-Soviet space. Russia still hopes to put an end to the expansion of the U.S. influence.


“SEA BREEZE-2008” AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE’S JOINING NATO

VITALY PORTNIKOV

22.07.2008

The holding of “Sea Breeze” military exercises and Ukraine’s joining NATO should be regarded as two different processes. Some people want to unite them, but Kyiv has not applied for the NATO membership yet. Ukraine has not received the NATO Membership Action Plan and, apparently, will not recieve it in December.


PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES IN THE UNITED STATES

JESSICA MATTHEWS, PRESIDENT OF THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE; MARVIN KALB, PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY

20.02.2008

"When this campaign got started it was a perfect opportunity for new people to come in with new ideas and to try to come up with a formula, pattern, a way of behaving responsive to the new times", Marvin Kalb.



Opinion
BARACK OBAMA - KING FOR A DAY
John Marone

10.11.2008

The buzz over the election of America's first black president, Barack Obama, continues unabated. Fresh faced, eloquent and from a modest background, his 'story' sells well just about everywhere. But being liked so much for doing so little is a little like being king for a day, secretly hoping that the reality of tomorrow never has to come.


LOOKING FOR A RUSSIAN OBAMA
Kevin O'Flynn

05.11.2008

When were you last excited about an election in Russia? Any election? I've seen four presidential elections in Russia and the only one that had any excitement was in 1996 when many feared a Communist victory would swing the country back to its Soviet past.


DEMOCRATIC UNCERTAINTY BEFORE ELECTIONS IN AMERICA AND UKRAINE
John Marone

31.10.2008

The 2008 U.S. presidential-election campaign has been watched with much anticipation, both at home and abroad. There’s a woman vice president on the Republican ticket, and an African-American being fielded by the Democrats for the nation’s top job. Whichever party wins, history will be made.


WHAT WOULD A MCCAIN PRESIDENCY MEAN FOR RUSSIA?
Jules Evans

07.02.2008

President Putin must be watching the US presidential elections with some mild concern. Because the person who is emerging as the favourite for the US presidency – John McCain – is also one of Putin’s most outspoken critics among the US political elite.



 events
 news
 opinion
 expert forum
 digest
 hot topics
 analysis
 databases
 about us
 the Eurasia Heritage Foundation projects
 links
 our authors
Eurasia Heritage Foundation