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WILL THE US-RUSSIA RELATIONS BE RESTORED?
MARIA YULIKOVA,
PhD in Journalism, Fletcher School of International Affairs, Tufts University, USA
While the United States was electing the next president and struggling with the major economic crisis, Russian leadership used every chance to blame America for the world financial depression. Two months of such rhetoric between Russia and the US leaders, prompted by the August Caucasus crisis, nearly annihilated all the diplomatic achievements in the relationships between the two countries of the current millennium, and caused frustration among the diplomats on both sides. The issue of future Russia-US relations intrigues the experts and decision-makers.
The major areas of the current US-Russia cooperation are:
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The multilateral initiatives - six-party talks on North Korea, P5-plus-one-group (for convincing Iran to stop developing nuclear weapons), Quartet (to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace)
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Combat Nuclear Terrorism
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Energy cooperation
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Russia's accession into the WTO
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Democracy and human rights
Caucasian crisis as well as the global financial one damaged almost all the spheres of bilateral cooperation.
The major problem in this field lies in the relationships with Iran, whose growing nuclear facilities threaten primarily Israel and the Western countries. Russia has recently vetoed proposed sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council, and made a major step towards further cooperation with this country, promoting the OPEC-style cartel on natural gas, together with Qatar.
In September Washington shelved a deal on civil nuclear cooperation with Russia. The deal would have given Washington access to state-of-the-art Russian nuclear technology, while helping it address climate change by increasing civilian nuclear energy use worldwide and keeping nuclear material out of terrorists' hands.
Later that month, Russia and Venezuela signed several energy pacts, while conducting joint naval exercises near the Venezuelan borders. This was the first Russia’s action of such a range in the US’ backyard since the Cold War.
In late October the United States has imposed sanctions on Rosoboronexport, the sole state intermediary agency for Russia's exports/imports of defense–related products, technologies and services. The sanctions were also imposed on companies from China, Venezuela and other countries for allegedly violating the ban on sales of technology that could help Iran, Syria or North Korea develop nuclear weapons systems.
These are just a few examples illustrating the current tensions between Russia and the United States.
Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov, former US secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, six former ambassadors to Washington and Moscow, as well as a number of prominent political scientists have recently presented their expertise of the current condition of the US-Russia relations suggesting the ways of improvement.
In his recent article for “Profile” magazine, Sergey Lavrov, among other ideas asserts that Russia’s international relations ideology fundamentally based on common sense and the rule of international law; that the system of global governance was unviable; relations between Russia and the United States had not worked since the beginning of the Caucasus crisis. Analyzing the implications of the recent Russia-Georgia conflict, Lavrov draws the conclusion that “it was shown most convincingly that a unipolar world does not exist”. Russian foreign minister insists that Russia has no imperial grand designs, and fully satisfied with its position, and like the other US partners is ready for “joint brainstorming”. Moreover, Lavrov affirms that this is the biased media which separates these two states, although he never mentions which media exactly.
Discussing the obstacles in the US-Russia relations, the minister talks about eastward NATO expansion, the deployment of elements of a US global missile defense system in Eastern Europe, and misinterpretation of international law by the USA and other Western countries. Stating that the US is the most important Russia’s partner, Russian minister suggests that the two states are “a little silent and a little indifferent towards each other”, and that Russia concentrates on developing relationships with the European Union.
Meanwhile, the US diplomats view Russia differently. In late September, Kissinger and Shultz published an op-ed on the issue in the International Herald Tribune. “The Georgian crisis,” the authors state, “is cited as proof that Vladimir Putin's Russia is committed to a strategy of unraveling the post-Soviet international order in Europe.”
Kissinger and Shultz claim that Russia is too weak to conduct a superpower struggle with the USA, and Russian leaders know about it. Moreover, the ex-diplomats believe that these leaders could never understand the psychology of Russia’s international environment. Nevertheless, Kissinger and Shultz admit that the Western countries not always made the efforts to clearly understand “how the world looks from Moscow.” Initially NATO functioned as a defensive alliance, the critics state, but by launching the war against Yugoslavia in 1999, NATO declared the right to achieve its goals by “offensive military action.” Kissinger and Shultz remind that the war in Kosovo was stopped partly because of the efforts of Russian mediators, and that Kosovo’s independence was proclaimed without UN endorsement and over tough Russia’s objection. Kissinger and Shultz admit that Russian leadership aspires to place the recent crisis with Georgia into historical and psychological perspective, rather than enforcing confrontation with the West.
Six former ambassadors to Washington and Moscow, Alexander Bessmertnykh, James Collins, Yuri Dubinin, Arthur Hartman, Jack Matlock, and Thomas Pickering, presented their view on the current Russia-US relations in their joint article for the International Herald Tribune “Time for Restraint and Reflection”. In this joint declaration of the necessity to restore and develop bilateral relations, former ambassadors highlighted the recent trends that shaped the environment within which US-Russia relations would further develop. Among these trends are Russia's political and economic recovery, the emergence of several significant new players in the global economy and international system, the evolution and growth of European and Euro-Atlantic institutions, and the continuing existence of unresolved conflicts that may engage the United States and Russia.
Dmitry Trenin, the prominent Russian political expert, deputy director and leading fellow of the Carnegie Moscow Center,representative office of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Russia, together with Alexei Arbatov, head of the International Security Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and member of the Academic Council of the Carnegie Moscow Center, published the piece titled “Russia-U.S. relations: What next?”. Among others, Trenin stressed the following arguments: the recent crisis in Georgia changed Russian foreign policy; Russian leadership proved that Moscow did not want to follow current rules of the world order and wanted to develop the new rules of the play; the current confrontation between the two states revealed the clash of the U.S. hegemonism and Russia's imperialism; Russia is interested in easing the confrontation with the USA and working out the rules of the game that would regard the interests of both Moscow and Washington.
Arbatov draws attention to the following facts of the current international relations: Moscow and Washington cannot be put on an equal footing now; Russia seeks to prove that it cannot be treated like in the 1990s any longer; the USA tries to show that it is still a strong superpower and can respond to all the challenges; at present there are no common rules of the play as well as "spheres of influence"; the former Soviet Union, which Russia declared its "sphere of influence", is not recognized by the USA; Latin America is no longer recognized by Russia to be the US ‘backyard’; Moscow is intensifying its cooperation with Latin America to demonstrate its influence in the region; the Russian-Georgian crisis indicated that the multipolar system really exists: for the first time Moscow’s hostilities did not consolidate the NATO member states, Europe acted as a mediator between Russia and the USA, such countries as China, India, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia were in no hurry to support Russia, but, instead, played coy, which once more emphasizes the development of the multipolar system.
All experts and diplomats on both sides say that it is necessary to restore the relationships between the two states; all of them believe that isolation and confrontation are not acceptable.
Lavrov suggests that the Western leaders take a pause and think about Caucasian crisis without judging the situation on its merits but on facts, and use the experience for shaping the European security and defense policy. The Foreign Minister states that the task for all the countries is to clear up the point that a uniform set of rules exists for all states and that no one can take international law into their own hands. Lavrov also affirms that current Russia is at the initial stage of its transformation, and America is “on the threshold of major changes”. Russian minister believes that the Caucasus crisis has given the US “a possibility to reaffirm its commitment to international legality.” Meanwhile, there are no concrete suggestions on the improvement of bilateral relations in this article, besides some Soviet-style rhetoric.
Kissinger and Shultz say that as Georgian crisis originated in a series of miscalculations, such miscalculations should not be allowed in future policy. “America has an important stake in the territorial integrity of an independent Georgia but not in a confrontational diplomacy toward Russia by its neighbors,” ex-diplomats say. Kissinger and Shultz also affirm that Russia needs to understand that the use or threat of military force evokes memories of the Cold War. America for its turn should decide whether to deal with Russia as a possible strategic partner or as a threat to be combated. The two former US secretaries of state argue that the ability of the USA to conduct foreign policy effectively toward Russia requires energetic efforts to restore its domestic strength, and the financial system should not just to be cured, but restructured in order to face the new challenges.
Kissinger and Shultz remind that in April 2008, Presidents Bush and Putin designed a program of cooperation between Russia and the United States to deal with the long-term requirements of world order. It included non-proliferation, Iran, energy, methods to defuse the impact of the anti-ballistic missile deployment in Eastern Europe and a possible linking of some American and Russian anti-ballistic missile defense systems.
Kissinger and Shultz called upon Russian and American leaders not to be diverted from these tasks.
Former ambassadors to Washington and Moscow state that it is necessary to reach “a better understanding about the forces and developments that are shaping the environment for U.S.-Russia relations”; to preserve and update the future of strategic and other arms control agreements, to revitalize cooperation on issues affecting the security of the Euro-Atlantic region; to implement joint measures to address effectively the challenges of terrorism, regional rivalries and conflicts, financial, commercial and economic issues. Ex-ambassadors called on the new US and Russian administrations to create an improved institutional framework for consultations and negotiations.
Rose Gottemoeller, the prominent expert on Russia-US relations, Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, in her recent Policy Brief titled “Russian-American Security Relations after Georgia”, explains that established and well-understood treaties and agreements, which have previously inspired at least predictability and confidence in the bilateral relationship, could help establish new policy rules for both countries. The author recommends Russian and U.S. leaders to prevent the START treaty from being swept away in the aftermath of the Georgia crisis; to begin reengagement with the Russians towards a new system of security in Europe on basis of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty; to convene a commission of past U.S. and Russian presidents in order to push weaving Russia and its security interests into the full fabric of European security.
Trenin suggests that Russia develops the relations with Europe and other countries, and domestically builds a law-based state, fighting corruption and creating an independent judicial system.
Arbatov makes three recommendations for developing Russia-US relations: to put up with the fact that Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia became independent; to solve the issue of Ukraine, dropping all talks of nations’ having the right to join any blocs on the one hand, and of right of nations to self-determination in the case of the Crimea and East Ukraine on the other hand. Russia and the USA must come to terms about the rules helping them to avoid a crisis: there is no need to make Ukraine join NATO, and Russia should guarantee Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Finally, it is necessary to develop the Russo-American cooperation in other global political spheres, such as fight against terrorism, disarmament and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Taking into account that this will be a different US administration to handle further relationships with Russia, we can certainly look forward to restoring and developing bilateral agreements. Nevertheless, it is important to understand that Russia is not the primary concern for the US diplomacy. The idea of a commission of the former Presidents does not seem realistic because of the recent decline in the relations between George Bush and Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, intensive development of cooperation with the neighboring countries, both for Russia, and the USA, seems to be a way out of current tensions, which will bring the two states closer to each other in a long run.
November 6, 2008
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