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GEORGIAN OPPOSITION FACES NEW CHALLENGES
MERAB PACHULIA,
Director of the Tbilisi-based Georgian Opinion Research Business International – GORBI
Eurasian Home: “Why in November 2008 less people took part in the demonstrations of opposition than in 2007? Many talk about weakness of the Georgian opposition. What could be the reason for that?”
According to the pro-government media, 30,000 people gathered in front of the Parliament building on November 7, but the opposition mass media claim that there were 40,000 marchers more. Anyway, tens of thousands of people came out to protest against the current situation. I believe that even the opposition leaders were surprised by such impressive numbers. Most of the so-called “pundits” thought that the opposition’s strategic failure (they could not unite during the 2008 presidential and parliamentary elections and nominate true leaders from their own ranks at the critical moment) disappointed the Georgian people, and it was hard to believe that the opposition would be able to enlist the same or even greater public support than the support they enjoyed a year ago. Obviously, the government was absolutely sure that few people would take to the streets in protest and that even if the rallies were numerous, their participants’ voices would not be heard against a background of serious political changes in Georgia.
The other factors that prevented some Georgian citizens from participating in the demonstrations were differences in the opposition, lack of independent mass media coverage and Russia’s constant aggression.
Another factor telling on the demonstrators’ number was the U.S. presidential election outcome. According to the recent public opinion polls, almost a half of Georgians (49%) said that they would like Mr. McCain to be elected the U.S. President (the highest percentage in 21 countries including the USA where the public opinion polls were conducted). Barack Obama was supported by 27% of the Georgian respondents. We have not conducted the public opinion polls among the Georgian government officials, but it was clear that their absolute majority were staunch supporters of John McCain. Interestingly enough, right after the U.S. election results were released, the Georgian government officials came to actively support Barack Obama.
Eurasian Home: “What is the Georgian opposition rating now and is it going down?”
Over the past 10 months, most of opposition leaders have not enjoyed public support because they failed to solve important political issues and fell short of expectations of those who were strongly opposed to the government. In November 2007 hundreds of thousands of demonstrators called on the government to hold the new election with quite different players. But the players were almost the same (Mikheil Saakashvili’s team).
Now only President Saakshvili of Georgia is supported by many Georgians, but the situation is taking a bad turn for the rest politicians (former Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze, ex presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze, ex defence minister Irakli Okruashvili). In Georgia there are two figures, whose ratings are growing: Sozar Subari, Ombudsman, and Iraklii Alasania, Georgia’s Ambassador to UN. They enjoy wide popularity among the Georgian people and their names are not sullied by the existing political regime. For all that, neither of them have expressed willingness to join the opposition or to thrown down the gauntlet to Mikheil Saakashvili.
For a period of past weeks many issues have been discussed but the Georgia-Russia dialogue is out of the question. Unfortunately, only few people believe that this dialogue is possible, and in pragmatic terms, such talks should be started as early as possible. An open dialog should be initiated at any level to pave the way for normalization of the Russia-Georgia relations. However, Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev’s actions during the military conflict in Georgia impacted greatly on the Georgian mindset. With all things considered including that Russia has occupied Georgia, it would be wrong to negotiate with that country. This tough position will prevail in the Georgian society for a long time, at least while the current Russian and Georgian government officials remain in office.
Eurasian Home: “The opposition comes out for holding early presidential and parliamentary elections in Georgia. How popular are these calls today?”
It would take some time for the pendulum of public opinion to start swinging towards a consolidated opposition, whether it would be new or old.
Today the following factors are of importance:
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The EU carries on serious talks with Russia about the strategic partnership agreement. Thus, Russia will not be punished or isolated.
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The Western mass media and NGOs start asking who actually started the war in South Ossetia, so some issues can be reconsidered.
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The talks are being conducted to create at least one independent TV channel that would broadcast not only for Tbilisi and that would make the opposition be heard at the national level.
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And what is more important is that Georgia’s accession to NATO Membership Action Plan and the membership itself are a distant prospect.
In short, there are favourable conditions for Georgians to be supportive of holding snap elections.
However, the presence of the Russian troops in Georgia as well as the explosions, shootings and recriminations between the Russian and Georgian sides act in favor of the Georgian authorities and further the keeping of the status quo.
November 19, 2008
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