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"WEST SHOULD ADMIT THAT RUSSIA HAS ITS OWN INTERESTS"
ALEKSANDR RAHR,
Director of Russia, Ukraine/CIS programs, German Council on Foreign Policy, Coordinator of the EU-Russia Forum, Germany
Russia-West relations
NATO in particular and the West in general have no common position towards Russia. The USA, where the presidential election campaign goes full swing, tries to take the toughest possible line with Russia. In many respects that is why some American government officials seek to support Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili.
New NATO member states (for example, the Baltic countries) try to follow the tough policy towards Russia, proceeding from their own disagreements with Moscow. At the same time, such countries as Germany, France, Italy and Spain have a softer stance since they do not wish to sacrifice the partnership and good relations with Moscow.
So I do not know what kind of the relations will be built between Russia and NATO after the crisis in the Caucasus. The Alliance has the problems with Afghanistan where NATO depends on cooperation with Russia. For instance, all the military equipment for the German troops in Afghanistan is supplied through Russia.
At present the emotions can change the situation seriously. The problem is that the Russian leadership refuses to deal with the Georgian authorities and the leaders of both countries continue to exchange personal accusations with each other.
The European Union believes that now there is a need to create common civilization with its neighbours, which will allow the countries to live side by side in peace and harmony. The EU membership has grown several times, thus strengthening the Western civilization.
But it is necessary to understand that we face an important landmark. After the enlargement of NATO and the EU the Western civilization came nearer to the areas with different culture, different attitude to laws and different view on democracy.
By its drastic measures in South Ossetia Russia tries to stop the Western expansion eastward. Moscow makes it clear that it doesn't want NATO enlargement at the expense of the territories that are close to Russia. At the meeting with the participants of the International Discussion Club Valdai (September 12), President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev said even more strictly than Premier Vladimir Putin used to that the West should admit that Russia, like the USA, has its own area of influence.
Energy cooperation between Russia and Europe
I believe that a watershed in the relations between Russia and the West came in 2006, when the quarrels between Russia and Ukraine began, rather than on August 8, 2008, when the crisis in the Caucasus happened.
Since 2006, the Western politicians have been talking about the “energy wars”, creation of the “energy NATO” and the energy security problems. Many European officials started to come out against Nord Stream project which had been regarded as a commercial, not a political project.
Gas has always (even during the breakup of the Soviet Union) been supplied to Europe, in particular to Germany, in a stable way. But now even the most farsighted German policy-makers say that there is a threat of Moscow's energy dictatorship.
In response to EU's sharp criticism Russia is going to increase its gas exports to the East. At the present time, Russia intensifies its cooperation with Asia. At the International Discussion Club Valdai Russian President Dmitry Medvedev spoke on this subject more than on cooperation with the West.
But the Western experts consider that Russia will fail to direct its energy exports to Asia. The arguments are suggested as follows: lack of resources, shortage of funds to finance the construction of new pipelines and China’s unwillingness to pay for gas as much as Europe pays. I do not agree with that and I polemize with those experts in my new book “Russland gibt Gas”.
In the West many people say that Russia will run out of natural resources in 20-30 years. The fact that such an opinion has prevailed since as late as 2006 casts doubt on its objectivity. I believe that this is a part of a smear campaign and the next stage of politicization of the energy issue. Some Europeans call upon to put an end to the energy cooperation with Russia and to buy Venezuela’s liquefied gas. In response to those unreasonable attacks Moscow promises to establish the “Gas OPEC”, to come to terms with all the gas exporters and to dictate its prices. This is a commercial issue rather than a geopolitical conflict. But the issue has become so global that it has attained the level of the world politics.
Anyway, a concern within the EU regarding the energy security is growing. New research centers and new university departments studying the energy security problems are being established. Today Europe builds the relations with Russia in the context of the energy security.
The material is based on Aleksandr Rahr’s speech in the Russian News and Information Agency RIA Novosti during the presentation of his new book “Russland gibt Gas” on September 12, 2008.
September 22, 2008
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