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VISIT OF UKRAINE’S PRIME MINISTER YULIYA TYMOSHENKO TO MOSCOW

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YULIYA TISHCHENKO,
Analyst, Ukrainian Independent Centre for Political Studies, Kyiv

The visit of Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yuliya Tymoshenko, to Moscow on February 20-21 was made against a background of deterioration of her relations with President Viktor Yushchenko. Of course, Ukraine’s relations with Russia are an independent aspect of Ukraine’s foreign policy. At the same time, they emphasize the peculiarities of the relations between the President and Prime Minister of Ukraine.

Now many in Ukraine define the relations between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko as a “cold war”, the President and Premier continue to compete with each other for power. In part this situation resembles the conflict between Viktor Yushchenko and former Premier Viktor Yanukovych. On the other hand, there is no obvious antagonism between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.

There are major differences in the President-Cabinet-Parliament triangle. The big question mark here is whether the President manages to strengthen his hand. For that Yushchenko must be supported by the Parliament. But the Parliament’s activities are blocked, which in its turn adversely affects the Cabinet’s efficiency. Yushchenko can try to extend his powers through the National Constitutional Council ignoring the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and holding the general referendum.

Under such circumstances, there is no predicting the developments. It is unclear whether the existing democratic coalition and Tymoshenko’s Cabinet will stand up. Conflicts are often situational, the President and the Prime Minister seek to exert stronger influence upon the governors, political parties, etc. But there is no strategy that could be made public. Even the government’s program has not been approved yet.

Thus, the foreign policy pursued by the President and the Prime Minister makes apparent the tensions between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko. We can see their competition in many aspects including the electoral dimension. Tymoshenko is more popular than Yushchenko and the latter cannot be happy with that. In particular, I am referring to the creation of a new pro-president party on the initiative of Head of the Presidential Secretariat Viktor Baloha. But it is doubtful that this party could win if early parliamentary elections were called.

In the current situation it is Viktor Yanukovych, the leader of the Party of Regions, who loses. For example, the consultations of the big business, which represents Ukraine’s eastern regions, with the President are bad for Yanukovych. Yushchenko’s attempts to get more popular in Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions by means of the slogan of Ukraine’s unity also undermine Yanukovych’s position. Yushchenko will be able to become more popular, but Tymoshenko’s supporters are unlikely to come over to Yushchenko’s side.

February 21, 2008




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