JOHN MARONE, KYIV
NATO SUPPORTERS GO ON THE OFFENSIVE
The issue of whether Ukraine should join NATO has returned to the public agenda, sparking off heated debates between supporters and opponents of the country’s bid.
In the past, such polemics have usually meant proponents of Euro-Atlantic unity coming under attack by pro-Russian factions in the run up to an important election or a NATO-sponsored military exercise on home soil.
Ever since Ukraine began cooperating with NATO in the 1990’s, those who advocate full membership have been accused of trying to commit Ukrainian youth to war zones or plotting against ‘brother’ Russia.
In response to such accusations, many pro-Western Ukrainian politicians have often waffled on their positions, for fear of being labeled as sell-outs to Western military aggression.
But this time, the leaders of Ukraine’s pro-Western Orange camp went on the offensive.
President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Parliament speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk announced on January 15 that they had requested approval of a NATO Action Plan in advance of a NATO summit scheduled for early April in Bucharest, Romania.
The request was made in a letter to NATO General Secretary Jaap De Hoop Scheffer. Currently, Ukraine-NATO relations are defined by a so-called Target Plan of proposed reforms toward greater integration with NATO.
Admission into an Action Plan would be the next step toward full membership.
The Party of the Regions, whose base of support is in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east, immediately challenged the Orange initiative in a statement released the same day.
“The Party of Regions declares that the signing by the Ukrainian president, prime minister and parliamentary speaker of a joint statement on Ukraine’s possible accession to an Action Plan toward NATO membership is just one more example of how the current authorities don’t observe the Constitution of Ukraine.”
The Regions, led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, also accused the Orange politicians of ignoring the will of the people.
“We are confident that only the Ukrainian people have the right to decide the fate of their country. And only a national plebiscite can decide whether membership in one or another military or political union meets the national interests of Ukraine,” the Regions statement continues.
With the elections that returned them control over parliament and the government behind them, the Orange leaders were undaunted by their opponents appeals to Cold War sentiment.
The Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko released its own statement, accusing the Regions party of being inconsistent in its stance on NATO membership.
“Apparently, the Party of the Regions position on NATO changes in direct relation to whether it’s in power or in opposition in Kyiv, and whether its representatives are speaking in Kyiv, Moscow or Brussels, reads a BYuT statement released on Jan 16.
Indeed, Yanukovych, who is widely seen as closer to the Kremlin than to Brussels or Washington, has made efforts to sound like a liberal when addressing the West.
But, contrary to BYuT’s accusations, the strongman from Donetsk has been more straightforward than any Ukrainian politician regarding NATO membership.
While still prime minister in the fall of 2006, Yanukovych told a Western audience in Brussels that it was too soon for Ukraine to think about joining the Action Plan, because the population didn’t support it.
And he was telling the truth.
Opinion polls have consistently put public support for NATO in Ukraine at below 30 percent for the last several years.
What Yanukovych didn’t mention though is how leftist and other members of his coalition have contributed to this kind of public opinion by endorsing if not initiating misinformation campaigns against NATO for short-term political gain.
But even excluding the influence of the misinformation campaigns, or the decades of Cold War propaganda, most Ukrainians were still widely opposed to NATO bombing campaigns against Serbia in 1999 and remain suspicious about joining any military bloc.
The countries of the Baltics were grateful for their NATO invitation, as they rightfully see the Russians as former occupiers; but, with the exception of those few western Ukrainian provinces that were never under Moscow until Stalin came along, most of Ukraine sees Russia in more neutral terms.
NATO advocates led by President Yushchenko believe that more Ukrainians would see things differently if they were given proper information about the goals of modern NATO.
The Orange agree with Regions demand that a referendum should be held on the issue but only after a public information campaign.
As recently as last year, NATO offered to finance an information campaign, while the Foreign Ministry under the Yanukovych government said it lacked the funds.
For its part, the US has continuously supported Ukrainian membership while underlining that the people would have to decide.
With US foreign policy at an all-time low due to prisons at Guantanamo Bay and the war in Iraq, support from Washington may do more harm than good in promoting NATO membership.
Ukrainians are more interested in joining the EU or at least getting the same visa-free access that Europeans get to Ukraine.
Those who would like to see a more professional Ukrainian army may well think it sufficient to continue the regular joint exercises and continuing the peacekeeping missions that Ukrainian troops already take part in.
Well aware of all these counter arguments, Kyiv’s Orange leaders have begun pushing harder than ever for NATO membership, whether the public or the Regions-led opposition likes it or not.
Parliamentary speaker Yatsenyuk denied that the Action Plan would violate Ukraine’s constitution and defended his decision to back the president and premier.
However, it was only last year while he was still serving as foreign minister that Yatsenyuk said Ukraine should defer NATO entry until all necessary reforms were carried out.
No such reforms have been passed, much less carried out, since then.
As for Tymoshenko, it was only in September of last year – during the parliamentary election campaign – that she said NATO entry should not even be on the agenda yet.
Always the populist, Ms. Tymoshenko must have realized at the time that a stronger position on North-Atlantic membership would not have gone over well with all the voters who ended up returning her to power.
And now that the Orange are in control of the parliament and government once again, they are running rough shod over the anti-NATO camp.
The head of Yushchenko’s Secretariat, Viktor Baloga, even went so far as to suggest that the opposition would also eventually join the membership campaign.
“The sharp criticism of NATO is continuing on past momentum. Today’s opposition includes no few balanced politicians who know how to distinguish between partisan politics and national interests, giving preference to the latter,” he said in a January 17 statement.
Ukraine’s pro-NATO advocates may be ready to steal the momentum, as they go on the offensive against their opponents in the parliament and the Kremlin, but the larger geopolitical chess match is a long way from being decided. In the meantime, if the Orange camp genuinely sees NATO membership as the best strategy for Ukraine, they need to maintain the offensive in word and in deed while winning the hearts and minds of the population as well.
John Marone, a columnist of Eurasian Home website, Kyiv, Ukraine
January 21, 2008
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