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THE OUTCOME OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN BELARUS
SERGEY NIKOLYUK,
Political analyst, Minsk
Eurasian Home: “How will the results of the parliamentary elections held on September 28 influence the Belarusian opposition?”
Nothing can seriously influence the Belarusian opposition, since they are engaged not in the social mobilization but in quarrels with each other. And the quarrels will be continued irrespective of the results of the parliamentary elections.
Eurasian Home: “Why did the opposition win no seats in the Belarusian Parliament, though the Belarusian authorities were said to have a deal with the West on the presence of the opposition in the new Parliament?”
It is unclear what kind of a deal it was. The Belarusian regime is a typical example of ‘imitated democracy’. Any kind of political competition can be harmful to the regime. When only several representatives of the opposition had been appointed to the electoral commissions (while their staff numbers nearly 70 000), it became clear that there would be no transparent elections.
Belarus’Central Electoral Committee, headed by Mrs. Lidya Ermoshina counts the votes in such a way that there is no chance of monitoring the elections. The observers and their skills play a slight role here.
Eurasian Home: “Will the West recognize that the parliamentary elections in Belarus have met democratic standards, despite the fact that the opposition hasn’t got seats in the new Parliament?”
I think the Western politicians were pretty sincere saying that they care about the transparency of the electoral procedures, not the numbers of the opposition’s seats. But those procedures were as bad, as always.
There is no sense in attaching superfluous importance to the last election campaign in Belarus. Previous Parliament has drafted only one bill on its own for four years. All its activities were reduced to the acceptance of the Cabinet and President’s initiatives.
The Belarusian electors understand that pretty well. According to the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies’ polls, only 4% of the Belarusians think that the Parliament is able to solve any real problems. The figure was 8% in 1994.
September 30, 2008
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