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RUSSIA HAS SUPPORTED THE BELARUSIAN ECONOMY AND WILL DO THAT
SERGEY NIKOLYUK,
Political analyst, Minsk
The public opinion in Belarus is formed by the Belarusian mass media, which are mainly controlled by the government. The Belarusian public opinion differs from that in the Western countries fundamentally, so it is impossible to imagine the situation when the Parliament makes one or another decision under pressure from the society.
The Belarusians’ attitude to the current Russia-Belarus conflict is determined by the mass media in many respects. The public opinion polls concerning the “milk war” between Belarus and Russia have not been held yet. But such conflicts with Russia usually last for a month or less. That means that though the Russia-Belarus relations have worsened, nothing special has happened.
Russia and Belarus have much in common, the countries need each other. Russia has subsidized the Belarusian economy and will do that. Moscow has no other ways to maintain relations with Minsk but to support Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime. The Russian federal government pursues the same policy towards the Russian regions. For example, what high price Moscow pays for Chechnya’s loyalty – how many powers Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has!
This “buying” of the republics’ loyalty was the policy followed by Moscow in the Soviet period. When the Soviet government was out of the resources, the USSR collapsed. If Russia is short of the resources, it may collapse too.
Therefore, despite the conflicts, neither side will raise the question of Belarus-Russia Union project termination. I believe the current leaders would not like to go down in history as destroyers of the Belarus-Russia Union.
As regards Belarus' pro-Western policy and the talks that Aliaksandr Lukashenka has turned to Europe, he couldn't be called the Western-oriented politician. The reason for all his drifts is that the Belarusian economy is built on the resources concentration and distribution. The Belarusian economy itself makes no profit, this is the economy of subsidies. So Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s main task is to “collect resources”. Today it is difficult for him to do that – the Russian resources are insufficient. Aliaksandr Lukashenka looks for other sources and he succeeds in doing that. If he is short of resources in the future, he will be ready to make new concessions to the EU or Russia.
The struggle for the resources has been carried on throughout all the period of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s presidency. While there are enough resources, the Belarusian elites are consolidated. The process of sharing out of the resources unites the elites. When the resources run out, the Belarusian elites will hint that the reforms should be carried out in the country, but this will not happen soon.
June 25, 2009
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