SVYATOSLAV POLKHOV

The meeting of Belarus-Russia Union Counsel of Ministers, which was held in the Belarusian city of Brest on March 16, surprised nobody and was a routine event. Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka was absent, so at the press-conference after the meeting it was Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin who looked like the host, while his Belarusian counterpart Siarhiej Sidorski resembled a guest.

SERGEY NIKOLYUK

The customs duty on the Russian oil for Minsk is the issue of the Belarusian regime’s survival. That’s why Minsk reacts so sharply to Moscow’s unwillingness to supply over 5 million tons of oil without charging the duty.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

President of Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s uncomplimentary words about the Russian-Belarusian relations and about Russian Premier Vladimir Putin personally have little to do with transformation of the CIS whose leaders will hold the summit in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau on October 9.

SERGEY NIKOLYUK

Moscow has no other ways to maintain relations with Minsk but to support Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime. Despite the conflicts, neither side will raise the question of Belarus-Russia Union project termination. I believe the current leaders would not like to go down in history as destroyers of the Belarus-Russia Union.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

According to the public opinion polls, 90% of the Belarusians have considered Russia a friendly state. At present this figure can fall to 70%, this is the maximum, to which the national mass media criticism can lead.

VALERY KARBALEVICH

Europe concluded that its previous tactics (democratization demand, sanctions toward Belarus’ authorities, support for the opposition) were inefficient. Poland and Lithuania urged the EU to change its policy towards Minsk. Germany is also interested in development of economic relations with Belarus.

SERGEY NIKOLYUK

Minsk’s probable participation in the EU’s foreign-policy program “Eastern Partnership” is evidence of serious changes in Belarus. Rapprochement between Brussels and Minsk and, in general, of Belarus and the West is connected with the liberalization processes in Belarus, first and foremost, in the economic sphere.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

The policy followed by the Belarusian authorities during the financial and economic crisis confirms the axiom of the economic influence on the politics. In Belarus the economic situation exerts considerable influence upon the politics.

SVYATOSLAV POLKHOV

Minsk has recently supported the EU’s new foreign-policy program “Eastern Partnership” and has already confirmed its readiness to formalize the program jointly with the European Commission, said Andrey Popov, spokesman for the Belarusian Foreign Ministry.

VALERY KARBALEVICH

Several factors influenced the change of EU policy towards Belarus and the lifting of the sanctions for some Belarusian officials in the EU. But it is difficult to speak about the public opinion changes in view of the change in Europe-Belarus relations.

SERGEY NIKOLYUK

There is no sense in attaching superfluous importance to the last election campaign in Belarus. Previous Parliament drafted only one bill on its own for four years. All its activities were reduced to the acceptance of the Cabinet and President’s initiatives.

VITALI SILITSKI

The most predictable results of the parliamentary elections that took place in Belarus on 28 September 2008 were accepted as a great surprise and even a sensation in the West and partly even in Belarus.

PAVEL USOV

The main question, which has arisen before the Belarusian political elite, is with whom they should build relationships, with the East or with the West. The current political situation indicates that Belarus has reached a geopolitical impasse.

VITALI SILITSKI

The parliamentary elections in Belarus will be held on September 28. There remains a little time before the elections. But the Belarusian opposition is unlikely to have been united by the polling day. It is completely disintegrated.  

VALERY KARBALEVICH

The formal reason why the officials were fired is an explosion in Minsk on the Independence Day. It is clear that the explosion is just a pretext for such important reshuffles. If to proceed from the official version, it would be logical to sack the Head of the KGB and the Minister of the Interior. But that did not happen.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

Globalization influences not only the markets of goods, services and money. The authoritarian and dictatorial regimes have long been reaping fruits of the globalization, severely criticizing its major initiators, the USA being on top of the list.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has done his utmost to show Belarus and the world community that he is the only and indisputable leader of the country.

ANDREY KAZAKEVICH

The official data indicate that Lukashenka is likely to get between 75 and 85% of votes in the presidential elections. However, the real support for Lukashenka is between 58 and 65%.

OLEG MANAEV

I believe that Russia’s support for Aliaksandr Lukashenka at the presidential election is quite obvious.

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

The decision to hold presidential elections on March 19, 2006 was not a surprise for the Belarusian opposition. It was one of the predictable case scenarios, which depended on the development of relations between Minsk and Moscow . Aliaksandr Lukashenka could not be luckier. Being an experienced politician, he turned gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine to his advantage.

The case of Kurmanbek Bakiyev is consistent with the logic of the Belarusian authorities’ actions towards the plane crash near Smolensk. The decisions not to demonstrate the “Katyn” film and not to announce the mourning were made emotionally, to spite Moscow and Warsaw, without thinking about their consequences and about reaction of the society and the neighbouring countries.

While Russian and Belarusian officials were carrying on negotiations on the Russian oil prices, on which 50% of Belarus’ annual GDP depends, Minsk hosted the big hockey holiday. The local team of veterans with its unchallenged captain, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, played in a tournament to win the Belarusian President’s prize. Simultaneously, during the ceremony of granting awards to cultural workers, Aliaksandr Lukashenka delivered a long speech.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has declared that in the nearest future he will devote his time to combating the “Iron Curtain”. By the ‘curtain’ he means the isolation regime which has been established by the unfriendly states around Belarus. One can interpret the Belarusian President’s statement in two ways. It is either he yet again decided to make it hot for the screen and jalousie lovers or he wishes to “remake” his own enclosure.

“Political battles are over”, said Aliaksandr Lukashenka summing up the presidential election campaign that held the Belarusians’ attention for three months. But the situation in the country is still far from being stable.

Last week Belarus held presidential elections. No sensation occurred, everything was predictable: the results, the authorities’ behavior, the opposition’s reaction, and estimations made by the Russian officials and Western bureaucrats...

It looks like it will be another long, cold winter in Belarus. On Tuesday the 21^st of February, armed KGB agents raided the homes of 10 young opposition activists in Minsk, searching their homes and taking them away for questioning. The activists were all members of Partnership, a Belarusian NGO which acts as an independent monitor of elections.

As the Belarusian president arrives for talks on the price of Russian gas shipments in 2009, analysts in Minsk and Moscow alike say he is aware that he is headed to Russia hat in hand - and desperate for a sign of financial support from his powerful neighbor.

The burst of ecological activism that followed Chornobyl lost its momentum after the Soviet Union broke up in 1991. The Soviet successor states quickly became more concerned with economic development than ecology.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s opponents have been arrested for two weeks. On April 27, leader of the united Belarusian opposition Aliaksandr Milinkevich was sentenced for 15 days of administrative arrest.

The Belarus president’s adversaries are preparing to declare the presidential elections illegitimate.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies publishes a report, prepared by Alexei Pikulik, Maxim Znak, Alexei Lashuk, Elena Rakov, Marina Roshina and Vitali Silitski, “Getting Belarus to the top 30 countries with the best business climate”. The study assesses the opportunities and proposes policies to ensure Belarus's entry in list of thirty countries with the most favorable conditions of doing business.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Pontis Foundation and The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies publishes a paper, prepared by Nikolai Benko, Julia Sivec and Gennadij Maksakov, “Prospects of Belarus – Ukraine Relations“. The study suggests concrete recommendations on how political, legislative and institutional tools could be used to expand the existing relations and achieve greater mutual benefit.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Pontis Foundation and The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies publishes a paper, prepared by Gleb Shymanovich, "Belarus external debt: Sustaining Levels in a Time of Global Crisis". The paper takes a close look at how Belarus´ foreign debt is structured and what potential impact it could have on the Belarusian economy in the upcoming period.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes a study “What Eastern Partnership should bring to Belarus”, in which BISS analyzes possibilities of the Eastern Partnership initiative and its potential to transform Belarusian political regime.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes the analytical report “Belarus: Shaping the Space for Change”, which reflects directions of panel discussions as well as conclusions made on their basis during the second annual international conference carried out in Kyiv, Ukraine, on 11-12 November 2008.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes an article written by the BISS director Vitali Silitski and Dzianis Meliantsou. The article focuses on the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Belarus.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the Belarus Brief "The End of ENP" on the post-election situation in Belarus against the background of Brussels’ departing from its previous “soft” policy approach towards Belarus, encapsulated in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP).

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes an article written by the BISS director Vitali Silitski. The article focuses on Belarus’ relations with Russia and the West.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes an article “Parliamentary Elections: Belarusian Tranquility, European Intrigue?” written by the BISS analyst Vitali Silitski. The article focuses on the intrigue of the parliamentary elections in Belarus.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the Belarus Brief "How the West continues to lose Belarus" on the current situation in Belarus and outlining possible scenarios for the 2007 year.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the survey on Belarus, entitled “Current Trends in Belarus Politics”. This survey deals with the leadership crisis within the United Democratic Forces (UDF), covers the preparation for the forthcoming local government elections in January 2007, gives insight on post-election developments of the regime and the democratic opposition after March 2006.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes analysis entitled “State of the Union and the Union State”. In the light of the EU-Russia summit, the analysis offers a new look to the most important post-election development of Belarus.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes analysis prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Education entitled “Belarus after Election: The Naked Dictator”.  The analysis summaries the March events, draws conclusions from the reaction of authorities and the opposition and outlines the possible development for Belarus for the beginning of the third term of Alexander Lukashenka.

Eurasian Home  with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes “Belarus Brief: Soberness and Dilemmas”. The current situation shows that dilemmas with regard to where to go from here are being faced by all key actors – by the Belarusian regime, by the opposition and civil society, by Russia and by the European Union. This brief outlines these dilemmas, some lessons learned and possible future scenarios.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis of the Slovakia-Belarus Task Force “Belarus Before Election: David against Goliath” prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Education and commissioned by the Bratislava-based Pontis Foundation’s Institute for Civic Diplomacy.

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis entitled “The Fading Pillars of Power in Belarus: 100 days of Milinkevich”  prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Educationand commissioned by the Bratislava-based Pontis Foundation’s Institute for Civic Diplomacy briefs about the first hundred days of the “single candidate” A.Milinkevich, elected by the Congress of Democratic Forces on Oct 2, 2005.

“Eurasian Home” with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis entitled "Potential of Change or Backsliding to Conformism: Future Trends of Belarus Politics" based on thirty-one interviews with Belarusian political and social scientists from state and non-governmental analytical centres on September 3-17, 2005. The survey discusses the most important external and internal factors in the mirror of the Belarusian analysts, while outlines possible future trends of Belarus in the context of the 2006 Presidential Elections.