Main page                           
Eurasian Home - analytical resource


RESHUFFLES IN BELARUS

Print version

VALERY KARBALEVICH,
Expert of “Strategy” analytical center, Minsk

There were several reasons for the reshuffles in Belarus. Aide to Aliaksandr Lukashenka on Protocol Uladzimir Makei was appointed as Head of the Presidential Executive Office of Belarus and Head of the KGB (State Security Committee) Yuri Zhadobin was appointed as Head of the Security Council. The First Deputy Chairperson of the Frontier Troops Committee Vadim Zaytsev was appointed as Head of the KGB.

Previously, State Secretary of the Security Council Viktar Shejman and Head of the Presidential Executive Office of Belarus Gennady Nevyglas had been dismissed.

The formal reason why the officials were fired is an explosion in Minsk on the Independence Day. It is clear that the explosion is just a pretext for such important reshuffles. If to proceed from the official version, it would be logical to sack the Head of the KGB and the Minister of the Interior. But that did not happen. What is more, Yuri Zhadobin has been advanced.

This way, the explosion brought closer the reshuffles that had been planned long ago. Viktar Shejman’s dismissal is of the greatest significance. He was Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s right hand and one of the masterminds of the political repressions. This is an odious figure. The PACE (Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe) and the Council of Europe Resolution requests that Shejman be fired on suspicion of his involvement in disappearance of the Belarusian politicians.

Viktar Shajman is the last representative of the old team with which Lukashenka came to power in 1994. This was the only governmental official whom Lukashenka owes something. For example, Shejman was the main witness of a doubtful attempt on Lukashenka’s life in 1994.

Lukashenka got rid of his last companion-in-arms. Currently Lukashenka owes the governmental officials nothing. A dictator does not need companions-in-arms, he needs subordinates. In a sense, Shejman showed some independence.

But for last several years he was gradually losing control over the security agencies. Now those agencies are run by the President’s elder son, Viktar Lukashenka, who is the Aide to the President on National Security.

Lukashenka is also going to improve the relations with the West. So, he tries to make concessions to it. In winter there was talk that political prisoners would be released in exchange for some political benefits for Lukashenka. At present the issue of the opposition’s getting into the Chamber of Representatives in the autumn elections is being discussed. It is understandable that Lukashenka rather than people will elect the opposition to the Parliament.

In addition, from now on the opposition can be present at the district electoral committees. The President invited Pope Benedict XVI to Belarus, although before that the Belarusian authorities had shown preference to the Orthodox Church. Dismissal of Shejman and appointments of the new people, who have nothing to do with the political repressions, can look like Lukashenka’s attempt to improve the relations with the West.

Apart from that, the political generations are being changed in a natural way and, therefore, the personnel are being rotated. Lukashenka has stayed in power for a long time. A new team is being formed, which is less connected with the Soviet heritage and partly with Russia.

So a younger team of politicians is coming to power. There is no telling if it will be corporate since Belarus’ political system is closed and Lukashenka continues to be the major decision-maker.

The reshuffles can be indirectly related to the parliamentary elections and to the start of a more intense privatization stage. New challenges should be faced by a new team.

The elections will show in many respects whether better relations will be established with the West. So Lukashenka may allow the opposition to be elected to the Parliament.

As regards the privatization, the new people have less in common with the socialist past. They may be interested in using their powers to acquire property and they may urge the President to help them in that. Those people want to carry out market reforms as well as to derive their own benefits.

July 18, 2008




Our readers’ comments



There are no comments on this article.

You will be the first.

Send a comment

Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Expert forum
INTEGRATION IMITATION WILL CONTINUE. DMITRY MEDVEDEV AND VLADIMIR PUTIN’S TACTICS AGAINST ALIAKSANDR LUKASHENKA

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

26.06.2008

Moscow’s main aim is to stop the parasitical relations with Lukashenka's regime without serious damage to the cooperation, and to establish friendly but, at the same time, pragmatic relations with the Belarusian state, which let the Kremlin keep Minsk in Russia’s sphere of influence.


THE NEW RUSSIAN PRESIDENT AND BELARUS: SLUGGISH POLITICAL EMANCIPATION, ACTIVE ECONOMIC EXPANSION?

BELARUSIAN INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES, NASHA NIVA WEEKLY, MINSK

26.06.2008

Presidential elections in Russia have been an event of international importance. A succession scenario had been implemented, although the former President, Vladimir Putin, still controls power being the Prime-Minister and the leader of the largest faction in the State Duma. What does this mean for Belarus?


“EUROPEAN MARCH” TOOK PLACE IN BELARUS

ALIAKSANDR FIADUTA

19.10.2007

Now there is nothing else left for the Belarusian opposition to do, but to organize the street processions. This form of political action is quite futile because it does not add electorate to the opposition.


PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN BELARUS

YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK

23.03.2006

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has done his utmost to show Belarus and the world community that he is the only and indisputable leader of the country.


PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN BELARUS

ANDREY KAZAKEVICH

17.03.2006

The official data indicate that Lukashenka is likely to get between 75 and 85% of votes in the presidential elections. However, the real support for Lukashenka is between 58 and 65%.


PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN BELARUS

OLEG MANAEV

22.02.2006

I believe that Russia’s support for Aliaksandr Lukashenka at the presidential election is quite obvious.



Analysis

17.06.2008

BELARUS' RELATIONS WITH UKRAINE AND LITHUANIA BEFORE AND AFTER THE 2006 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of The Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes an article "Belarus' Relations with Ukraine and Lithuania Before and After the 2006 Presidential Elections", written by the BISS analyst Dzianis Melyantsou and Andrei Kazakevich, professor at the European Humanities University (Vilnius).


21.03.2008

POWER POKER: AN EXAMINATION INTO THE DYNAMICS OF THE CURRENT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA AND BELARUS

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the Belarus Brief  "Power Poker: An Examination into the Dynamics of the Current Relationship between Russia and Belarus" by Andrei Liakhovich, Center for Political Education, Minsk.


09.10.2007

TOWARDS A NEW VISION OF BELARUS

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) publishes synopsis of the international conference "Towards a New Vision of Belarus" which was held on September 10-12 in Kyiv, Ukraine.


29.09.2007

BELARUS BRIEF: COSMETIC SURGERY IN BELARUS: TOWARD A NEW REGIME

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes analysis entitled "Cosmetic Surgery in Belarus: Toward a New Regime". In the light of the EU-Russia summit, the analysis offers a new look to the most important post-election development of Belarus.


22.12.2006

BELARUS BRIEF: HOW THE WEST CONTINUES TO LOSE BELARUS

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the Belarus Brief "How the West continues to lose Belarus" on the current situation in Belarus and outlining possible scenarios for the 2007 year.


21.09.2006

CURRENT TRENDS IN BELARUS POLITICS

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the survey on Belarus, entitled “Current Trends in Belarus Politics”. This survey deals with the leadership crisis within the United Democratic Forces (UDF), covers the preparation for the forthcoming local government elections in January 2007, gives insight on post-election developments of the regime and the democratic opposition after March 2006.


26.05.2006

BELARUS BRIEF: STATE OF THE UNION AND THE UNION STATE

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes analysis entitled “State of the Union and the Union State”. In the light of the EU-Russia summit, the analysis offers a new look to the most important post-election development of Belarus.


14.04.2006

BELARUS AFTER ELECTION: THE NAKED DICTATOR

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes analysis prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Education entitled “Belarus after Election: The Naked Dictator”.  The analysis summaries the March events, draws conclusions from the reaction of authorities and the opposition and outlines the possible development for Belarus for the beginning of the third term of Alexander Lukashenka.


31.03.2006

BELARUS BRIEF: SOBERNESS AND DILEMMAS

Eurasian Home  with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes “Belarus Brief: Soberness and Dilemmas”. The current situation shows that dilemmas with regard to where to go from here are being faced by all key actors – by the Belarusian regime, by the opposition and civil society, by Russia and by the European Union. This brief outlines these dilemmas, some lessons learned and possible future scenarios.


13.03.2006

BELARUS BEFORE ELECTION: DAVID AGAINST GOLIATH

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis of the Slovakia-Belarus Task Force “Belarus Before Election: David against Goliath” prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Education and commissioned by the Bratislava-based Pontis Foundation’s Institute for Civic Diplomacy.


20.01.2006

THE FADING PILLARS OF POWER IN BELARUS: 100 DAYS OF MILINKEVICH

Eurasian Home with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis entitled “The Fading Pillars of Power in Belarus: 100 days of Milinkevich”  prepared by the Minsk-based Center for Political Educationand commissioned by the Bratislava-based Pontis Foundation’s Institute for Civic Diplomacy briefs about the first hundred days of the “single candidate” A.Milinkevich, elected by the Congress of Democratic Forces on Oct 2, 2005.


17.09.2005

POTENTIAL OF CHANGE OR BACKSLIDING TO CONFORMISM: FUTURE TRENDS OF BELARUS POLITICS

“Eurasian Home” with a kind permission of the Pontis Foundation publishes the analysis entitled "Potential of Change or Backsliding to Conformism: Future Trends of Belarus Politics" based on thirty-one interviews with Belarusian political and social scientists from state and non-governmental analytical centres on September 3-17, 2005. The survey discusses the most important external and internal factors in the mirror of the Belarusian analysts, while outlines possible future trends of Belarus in the context of the 2006 Presidential Elections. PDF



Opinion
SLEIGHT OF MOUTH
Aleh Novikau

27.02.2008

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has declared that in the nearest future he will devote his time to combating the “Iron Curtain”. By the ‘curtain’ he means the isolation regime which has been established by the unfriendly states around Belarus. One can interpret the Belarusian President’s statement in two ways. It is either he yet again decided to make it hot for the screen and jalousie lovers or he wishes to “remake” his own enclosure.


CONCTRACT OF THE THIRD TERM
Aleh Novikau

04.04.2006

“Political battles are over”, said Aliaksandr Lukashenka summing up the presidential election campaign that held the Belarusians’ attention for three months. But the situation in the country is still far from being stable.


NINE LIVES OF THE BELARUSIAN CAT
Boris Kagarlitsky

29.03.2006

Last week Belarus held presidential elections. No sensation occurred, everything was predictable: the results, the authorities’ behavior, the opposition’s reaction, and estimations made by the Russian officials and Western bureaucrats...


WINTER IN MINSK
Jules Evans

22.02.2006

It looks like it will be another long, cold winter in Belarus. On Tuesday the 21st of February, armed KGB agents raided the homes of 10 young opposition activists in Minsk, searching their homes and taking them away for questioning. The activists were all members of Partnership, a Belarusian NGO which acts as an independent monitor of elections.



Author’s opinion on other topics

“BELARUS’ POLICY OF BALANCING BETWEEN EUROPE AND RUSSIA IS SUCCESSFUL”

06 March 2009

Europe concluded that its previous tactics (democratization demand, sanctions toward Belarus’ authorities, support for the opposition) were inefficient. Poland and Lithuania urged the EU to change its policy towards Minsk. Germany is also interested in development of economic relations with Belarus.


EU POLICY TOWARDS BELARUS

24 October 2008

Several factors influenced the change of EU policy towards Belarus and the lifting of the sanctions for some Belarusian officials in the EU. But it is difficult to speak about the public opinion changes in view of the change in Europe-Belarus relations.

 events
 news
 opinion
 expert forum
 digest
 hot topics
 analysis
 databases
 about us
 the Eurasia Heritage Foundation projects
 links
 our authors
Eurasia Heritage Foundation