BORIS KAGARLITSKY, MOSCOW
EMBARRASSMENT IN THE KREMLIN
While in America they cannot make their minds about the Democratic presidential candidate, in Russia we have a different agenda - foreign policy of the newly elected President.
The long, drawn-out democratic primary race causes as much uncertainty in Moscow as it does in Washington. Despite the propaganda declarations that Russia has finally “risen from the knees” and “returned its status of a superpower”, the Kremlin’s foreign policy is still characterized by inconsistency and complete absence of strategic planning. True, there has been perceptible change since the 1990s – the Kremlin has become more independent in decision-making, the Russian elite are aware of the state interests and can raise their voices against the US policy if the latter threatens Russia’s interests. But despite the regained position of an independent international actor, Moscow doesn’t act on the basis of its genuine interests but mostly reacts to external forces. Should the external force be friendly, the Russian diplomats purr with pleasure, should it be hostile, they spit but never scrabble out of fear to be simply shooed away. As we see so far the Kremlin’s foreign policy has reached the level of a sentient being.
All Moscow’s initiatives can be boiled down to propaganda and token gesture. Moscow knows well what it wants from the international community – it wants to be left alone for the Russian businessmen to have free hands to line their pockets and the Russian bureaucrats to rule the country according to their own understanding. Moscow also wants to be recognized by its post-Soviet neighbors as a dominant regional power, while so far Ukraine, Georgia and Estonia have used every occasion to insult or tease the former empire capital. It is true that they have done so mostly to boost state propaganda or to satisfy political ambitions of their state leaders, but not out of strategic necessity. While Moscow demonstrates all characteristics of an intelligent animal, its neighbors act like irrational creatures.
Considering that Russia’s foreign policy is all about giving more or less adequate reaction to external signals, you must not be surprised to learn that the confusion in Washington provokes total embarrassment in the Kremlin. Who will be the next U.S. President? What will be his policy towards Russia and Ukraine? Does he know where Georgia is? Has he ever heard about the mysterious republic of Transnistria known in Russia as Pridnestrov’ye? Both Russian-American and Russian-Ukrainian relations depend on answers to these questions.
In this situation we can only feel pity for the new Russian President who will have to deal with the foreign policy. As far as I understand, while the government becomes more independent in economy and home policy, Dmitry Medvedev will be in charge of foreign policy. And even if Vladimir Putin would like to interfere with Medvedev’s area of responsibility he is not authorized to by the Constitution. That is why it is Medvedev who will go to G8 summit in Japan, meet with foreign counterparts and give instructions to the diplomats. But the only instruction Medvedev can give by now is to wait and to procrastinate all the decisions till autumn when the new President will enter the Oval Office in Washington. But even that won’t make the new world balance clear, for even if John McCain, known for his Russophobic declarations, takes over the presidency, he won’t necessarily implement all his promises, for campaigning is one thing and big politics is quite another. As to the Democrats, it would be reasonable to doubt every their word, whether it is Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
The only thing Medvedev is left to do as the one charged with foreign policy is to shape his positive image with the West. Should the new U.S. leader turn out to be hostile towards Russia, Medvedev’s positive image will help to neutralize all possible problems, should the former be friendly, well, so much the better for Medvedev.
But how can Medvedev win good reputation in the West? No doubt, he will smile and say pleasant things to foreign guests, will wear elegant suits and voice elegant ideas about freedom. Sensitive Europeans like those things. But the Russian liberal oppositionists will incessantly remind the West about “the anti-popular regime”, violation of human rights and other horrors. The most pragmatic solution is to coerce the liberals into silence. The simplest way to do so will be to improve the situation with the rights for the liberals themselves, for they are only people of flesh and blood and their judgments about the general situation with the human rights starts with their own lives.
So, they’ll have to bribe the liberals in this or that way, not because the latter are powerful and have a say but because they can be harmful and are apt to take offence. On the other hand, the whole affair won’t be too demanding. At the inauguration on May 7 it was enough for Medvedev to say a couple of words about freedom to make some of the opposition journalists praise the incoming President.
But the liberals have an allergy to Mr. Putin and that could spoil the plans to improve the Russian authorities’ international image as long as Putin stays the informal head of the Russian bureaucrats. For the moment that seems to be the main foreign policy problem. And Dmitry Medvedev is unable to take the challenge, for hate just as love has its hidden driving forces…
And love cannot be forced.
Boris Kagarlitsky is Director of the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements
June 3, 2008
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