The protest actions, which the Russian extraparliamentary opposition had scheduled for March 20, were held as planned, they surprised or frightened nobody. Just as it had been expected, the activists of many organizations supporting the Wrath Day took to the streets… but saw there only the policemen, journalists and each other.

It goes without saying, the protest actions, held on the same day in many Russian cities differed from one another. In Kaliningrad several thousand people took part in the protest action in spite of the division of the opposition bloc that had been formed shortly before that. The Russian authorities might put their hand to the opposition split, but firstly, the results were still worse where there were no opposition splits, and secondly, it’s little wonder that the coalition consisting of extreme Slavophiles and Westernists, Stalinists and liberals, etc. was unstable.

The Wrath Day showed perfectly well the gap between the grass roots protest level and the organized protest potential. When the people’s protest marches are not organized, they are headed by infamous local leaders and those events give the whole country something to think about as well as seriously frighten the government. This was the case in Pikalevo, in the Altai territory and in Kaliningrad. But when the opposition politicians from Moscow come to interfere in those events and coordinate the activities, when the liberal mass media start to support the people’s discontent, much fewer people take part in the actions.

The fact that the protest actions were held on the same day in 50 Russian cities – from Vladivostok to Kaliningrad – with the authorities’ resistance is quite a serious achievement. The same is true for the fact that the coalition members remain united and that they had not quarreled with each other long before the protest marches. However such achievements become a failure when it comes to the oppositions’ influence upon their fellow citizens.

The Western press’ interest in the Wrath Day can be regarded as the main achievement. Foreign policy-makers made statements supporting the protesters, the Western journalists collected the material, and even when the correspondents were not interested in what was going on, they were urged by their editors-in-chief. If to interpret the Wrath Day as an event for foreign observers, its organization and holding would seem to be successful enough. But as the Russian politics’ fate is decided in Moscow and St. Petersburg, not in Washington and Brussels, the liberal oppositionists cannot feel happy.

In 2009 the Wrath Day’s actions, which had been assigned beforehand and prepared carefully, were not numerous either. In 2010, after the unexpected crisis in Kaliningrad, the Wrath Day’s organizers thought that they would be lucky. Of course, in the last winter the protests in the Far East were as large-scale as the present political crisis in Kaliningrad. This did not make the Wrath Day more successful. Both in 2009 and in 2010 the results of the Wrath Day indicate that the tide of discontent diminishes and the political activists’ efforts to speed up the events yield the completely different results. When average people see the flags of nationalistic, liberal and Stalinist movements at the square, they go away, even if they themselves recently took part in a rally at the same square.

The situation with the Wrath Day resembles the American movie “Groundhog Day” where the same events with some variations take place time and again. But unlike the hero of that movie, who gained experience and learned new things, Russia’s oppositionists are able to learn nothing.

This is significant that beyond Kaliningrad, the only successful March 20 protest was the Moscow action of Russia’s Motorists Federation, which was very remotely connected with the Wrath Day. As a matter of fact, the motorists only took advantage of the circumstances, when the policemen and the authorities focused on the rallies’ organizers. The activists of Russia’s Motorists Federation blocked the “Sadovoe Koltso” street in Moscow with their cars, thus demonstrating their ability to influence the situation in the city. The Federation members make concrete and formally nonpolitical demands, they come out against toll highways and raising of the transport tax. Although some members of the political parties – from the leftist to the ultrarightist ones – were ready to back this protest, they play no role in those events.

The lessons and conclusions of the Wrath Day are clear. Firstly, the social discontent does not cause the political protest automatically, in spite of the theories drawn from the 20^th century books that were misunderstood. Secondly, Russia’s oppositionists can frighten anybody except the Kremlin with their actions and slogans. The oppositionists succeed in doing that and antagonized the overwhelming majority of the population.

Boris Kagarlitsky is a Director of the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements

March 25, 2010

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