JOHN MARONE, KYIV
NO AND HOW IN UKRAINE’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE
When I think about who’s going to be the next Ukrainian president, I don’t wonder about the know-how of the campaign strategists or the ability of the eventual winner.
The last presidential election wasn’t about campaign know-how, but rather about vicious tactics and dirty tricks, eventually ending in a back-room compromise that has ever since called into question the know-how and ability of the winner: President Viktor Yushchenko.
Since then – as all of us who’ve been watching over the last five years can certify – the country has been an experiment in democratic anarchy and blow-bubble economics.
There’s been very little show of know-how in practically anything, but especially in politics, where the key words are “No!” and “How?”
No one’s in charge
The first “No” of Ukrainian politics is that “No” one is in charge. To date, the Cabinet is missing four key ministers: a transport and communications minister (not found dead at his dacha like the one of four years ago, but quit in a huff over relations with the premier – she essentially called him a thief and he basically called her a political prostitute); a defense minister (who didn’t shoot down any passenger liners or launch missiles at apartment houses but nevertheless wasn’t liked very much); a finance minister (whose timing for his exit, quite frankly, couldn’t have been better considering the country’s economic woes); and a foreign minister - yet another anti-Kremlinite who couldn’t keep it to himself.
Yet these conspicuous blank spaces on the government web site are only the latest signs that the good ship Ukraine is adrift. The country’s legislature has always been a free-for-all, although admission is usually in the seven figure range. The so-called deputies of the people have been known to kick, punch and pull the hair of one another during parliamentary sessions; such is their devotion to the businesses they promote on a state salary. One thing you can give them for sure is that they have come a long way from being submissive Soviet cogs.
Ukraine’s judiciary is no less free market. If a higher court passes a decision for one price, a lower and often provincial court will overturn that decision at a discount. The courts are free, even from the influence of the law. Before Yushchenko, judges were equally disdainful of jurisprudence, but now they can choose and even swap clients from among the so-called elite, or anyone else with money for that matter.
As for the Сonstitution, Mr. Yushchenko really opened up a can of worms in late 2004, when he agreed to confusing and contradictory changes that have undermined his authority more than anyone else’s. More importantly, this set a precedent that every major contender seems intent on repeating.
No relief from elections
One of the consolations that Ukraine watchers have taken is that the upcoming presidential elections will put things in order once and for all. Indeed, on June 23 an overwhelming majority of legislators finally agreed on the election date: January 17.
However, despite the fact that they could just as easily come up with another date (as they did when they set the date back to mid October), there are still lots of uncertainties here. For one, it’s not clear when the election campaign will start. Ms. Yulia wants the campaign period reduced from four months to three.
Together with the eastern-looking Regions party, Tymoshenko’s BYuT also wants to fool around with the procedure for appealing election results. There is also a move to push the inauguration date back, effectively extending Yushchenko’s term.
In short, considering how nasty the 2004 race was run, and that the stakes are no less high now than they were then, we can expect just about anything to happen.
Only then, in 2004, the warring sides were pretty clear: the pro-Western Yushchenko rallied a sundry collection of political malcontents (including Ms. Yulia) against the pro-Russian camp led by Yanukovych. Since then, both our Orange avengers (Yulia and Yushchenko) have cut deals with the strong man from Donetsk.
More recently, it was revealed that Tymoshenko had been in secret talks with Yanuk & Co. to push through yet more controversial changes to the Constitution.
These changes allegedly included: All power to the Soviet (pardon – people’s) deputies, who would get an extended term of office, virtually full executive power, and greater control over elections. Of course, Tymoshenko’s and Yanuk’s factions would be the exclusive beneficiaries of such changes. Besides not being very democratic, one can just imagine how well and how long the two parties would tolerate each other before a war broke out – something akin to what happened after Molotov-Ribbentrop.
Thankfully, the deal didn’t come off.
No clear leader
Among the many faults that one could find in the Yushchenko presidency, the greatest has been the man’s lack of leadership. But even scarier is to imagine Ukraine under Yanukovych or Tymoshenko.
Advocates of Mr. Yanukovych refer to his solid management skills. Fair enough: he managed to take over almost every aspect of the presidency, while unfortunately he was still just premier. He also managed to let the premiership as well as the presidency slip out of his heavy hands, in a victory (it must be said) for Ukrainian democracy. However, despite recent signs of a split, the faction and party of Mr. Yanukovych have remained fairly stable. The question is whether one would want to see the rest of the country adopt the same kind of ‘party loyalty’.
As for Tymoshenko, who has shown herself to be more resilient and decisive than either Yushchenko or Yanukovych, me thinks the lady doth protest too much. In fact, she is much better at protesting, or rather at being in opposition, than at holding down a real job. Yes, she cleaned up the gas business, but still has a scrub brush in her hand, looking for dirt. As the vacancies in the Cabinet of Ministers shows: ‘there can only be one’. Yanukovych is loyal to his party, and Yushchenko is loyal to his principles, but Tymoshenko, despite all her (now fading) popular appeal, is only loyal to herself.
Unfortunately for Mr. Yushchenko, who has no little loyalty in his party and his administration, much less among the electorate, Yanukovych and Ms. Yulia are way ahead in the polls.
And anyone who is expecting the bespectacled long shot candidate Arseny Yatsenyuk, technocrat extraordinaire, to emerge from a nearby telephone booth in a red cape (like superman or more accurately - Underdog) to save the country, has been watching too many cartoons. Anything, of course, can happen between now and January, so let’s just keep that phone booth free for now.
How the campaigns will be run, how each candidate will fair and how it will all end are question to be answered at a later date. For now, there are just lots of NOs.
John Marone, a columnist of Eurasian Home website, Kyiv, Ukraine
June 29, 2009
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