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BORIS KAGARLITSKY, MOSCOW
ILLUSION OF MODERNIZATION
Many years ago German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck said about the Russians: “They harness their horses slowly but they drive them fast.” Strange as it may seem, Russians like this aphorism very much. As a matter of fact, the fast driving justifies any protracted, unsuccessful and stupid efforts to “harness” the progress chariot. On the other hand, it is exactly those perpetual delays that make our “fast driving” necessary. It turns out that we are late everywhere by the moment the horses have been “harnessed”. We desperately attempt to make up for lost time. This is a furious and pointless gallop –“Where are you, Russia, running?”, asked Russian writer Nikolay Gogol long before Otto von Bismarck, but he found no answer either. In fact, the answer exists, but it is as absurd as the question is. The goal of the gallop is the senseless efforts to get missed opportunities.
The first two years of Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency illustrated those missed opportunities. The President and his team failed to take advantage of the economic growth. Then they failed to benefit from the financial crisis, when the oligarchs and bureaucrats were confused and could agree to serious reforms. The moment the best chances were lost, a modernization slogan was formulated, but this was done so ambiguously and vaguely that the authorities’ initiative provoked, after all, another indistinct discussion.
Everyone seeks to read his own thoughts into an abstract word. The right-wing, left-wing, socialist and liberal versions of modernization could be invented. The functionaries of the “United Russia” party speak even about the conservative modernization. The ideological struggle for interpretation of this word is carried on. Those, who can impose their interpretation on the slogan, have a chance of turning the “discourse” into a policy, but they have only a chance and nothing but.
Certainly, all of that would make sense if the Russian President and his entourage really tried to reform Russia. However, I do not believe that for the recent months the authorities have sought only to pull our leg and to keep up appearances of the progress that does not exist. On the contrary, if the Kremlin’s initiatives were less sincere, they would be much better considered and more successful. The Kremlin spin doctors are very good at organizing demagogic campaigns. But they cannot carry out democratic reforms and solve social problems. Therefore, their efforts are inefficient, which has been obvious over the past several months. The officials try to perform the work for which they have no competence at all.
The only thing the Russian authorities decided to do was to reform the police. But they came to terms neither about the reform’s terms, nor about its objectives, nor about its correlation with other reforms.
The problem is not only the resistance of inert political and economic institutions that do not need any reforms. Those institutions could agree to the reforms during the crisis deterioration, and it is possible that its new deterioration would raise another bureaucratic panic. But a more serious problem arises here – the opponents as well as the supporters of the Kremlin are not ready for change.
Those officials do not realize why those reforms are needed and how the new policy will be followed.
The reason, why the reforms are welcomed now, is that the politicians understand that Russia has more and more unsettled problems. But this does not mean that the government officials, while stating the problems, automatically find a right way out of the situation. Apart from that, any political project should not only proceed from an abstract idea about the common good, but also take account of specific interests. The dominating interest groups in Russia are the country’s main problem and a source of its troubles.
Prevailing structures are broken down by revolutions. In history the rulers sometimes organized revolutions from above – Antonio Gramsci, great Italian Marxist, called them “passive revolutions”. But even such revolutions require at least two conditions – the people’s pressure and the clear ideology of the leaders who could formulate their goals distinctly and consistently. Today Russia has neither of those two things. It’s ironic that a revolution is needed to improve the situation even insignificantly, but under the circumstances, even the most modest reforms cannot be implemented.
So we have to “harness our horses slowly” without the slightest idea of how and where to drive. The President delivers speeches and writes articles, the government officials gather at the State Council meetings, experts write recommendations containing various projects of the social reforms. Meanwhile the situation in Russia continues to worsen. The country finds comfort in the hope for renaissance after the crisis that seems to be settled, but, in fact, it shows no signs of coming to an end.
The only consolation is that not only Russia is in difficulty – the USA is disappointed in Barack Obama. The President, who had promised reforms to the people, could change nothing. The difference between Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama is that the former promised much fewer things and did that in a less understandable way. So, the Russian people are not disappointed in him in such a large measure as the U.S. people – in Mr. Obama. We, the Russians, vaguely hope that, maybe, after all, we will harness our horses and drive them. No matter how and where we will drive. The crucial thing is we should go away from here as fast as possible.
Boris Kagarlitsky is a Director of the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements
February 11, 2010
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