ALEH NOVIKAU, MINSK
THE COLOR DREAMS OF LUKASHENKA
Minsk regards the failure of the European Constitution as a breach of the diplomatic blockade.
Till recently the Belarusian journalists had to speak about the “color revolutions” in the CIS as “political criminality”. President of Belarus Aliaksandr Lukashenka had proposed that definition.
However, after the referenda in France and in the Netherlands the Belarusian authorities have no longer considered the notion “color revolution” as a curse. “In the Netherlands the “Orange” or “Tulip” Revolution took place. Masses clamored against elite”, reported the Belarusian governmental newspaper “Sovetskaya Byelorussia”.
Why should the Belarusians welcome the “color revolutions” in Europe?
According to the Belarusian authorities, there are a lot of reasons. The “color” French and Dutch revolutionaries clamored against liberalism, transnational corporations, the European bureaucrats, freeloaders from the Eastern Europe that live at the expense of the tax payers of the old Europe, the eastward enlargement of the EU, a political establishment separated from the people etc.
Those arguments from the radical right and left that urged the Dutch and French citizens to vote against the European Constitution are the best demonstration of the populism of the Belarusian authorities. Lukashenka who heads the quasi-socialist regime admires the way the French right radical Jean-Marie Le Pen criticizes the European integration.
However, this is not of importance. The important point is the fact that the failure of the European Constitution has positive consequences for Minsk, according to “Sovetskaya Byelorussia”. The newspaper reports: “For Belarus two aspects are important in this situation. Firstly, there is no consensus of opinion in the EU. That enables us to develop bilateral cooperation with the countries interested in that. Secondly, even if the European bureaucrats articulate the “common opinion” it does not mean that the Europeans share it”.
So, it is possible that Minsk will soon try to establish relations with Europe breaching the diplomatic blockade. On June 1 Aliaksandr Lukashenka met with the Belarusian Foreign Minister and charged him “to improve the activity of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the directions that are of high priority for Belarus”. They include the European one.
But can the Belarusian authorities turn to advantage the European Constitution crisis?
Nowadays the “Belarus’ issue” is monopolized by the EU newcomers – Poland and the Baltic States. Those countries lobby the resolutions condemning the undemocratic regime of Lukashenka in the EU bodies. In this situation a creation of the single European Ministry of Foreign Affairs would be more advantageous for Minsk. The key positions in the Ministry would belong to the officials from the old Europe who are too busy to deal with the destinies of the political prisoners and civil society in Belarus.
However, the negative results of the referenda in France and the Netherlands can not impact the trend. On May 30 the European Commission representative Emma Udvin noted that “the situation with the European Constitution will not change the policy of the EU as regards Belarus”.
Let’s suppose that there are Europeans who do not share the opinion of the policy makers. The left could look upon Aliaksandr Lukashenka as the “European Hugo Chaves”. But he is not trusted any more since recently Mikola Statkievich, the leader of the Belarusian Socialist International, has been sentenced to three years imprisonment.
So, the diplomatic “breach” will result in a working visit of some Russian MPs. Like Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, the leader of the populist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, who visited Minsk on May 30, they will exchange views with Aliaksandr Lukashenka and state that Belarus is a “pattern” for the CIS and Eastern Europe countries.
As to the current situation with the Europe’s destiny it is very notable. The Belarusian press took an unprecedented interest in the European integration. For the first time the mass media quoted the European policy makers. For the first time the future prospects of the European integration process were looked at so ardently. For the first time people required the information about the EU’s history. Such strong interest testifies to the fact that Belarus, even being under the authoritarian regime, is integrating into the European political discourse.
The author is a columnist of the Belarusian weekly newspaper “Nasa Niva”. The article is written specially for "Eurasian Home".
June 07, 2005
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