Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov is hinting about his intentions to participate in a presidential election of 2008.

A new shadow is haunting the corridors of the Kremlin. The former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov troubles the governmental officials in their dreams and in reality, hinting about his return to power. Following the logic of Shakespeare’s tragedies, the former Prime Minister appears and disappears for no particular reason. His press conferences are also held without any reason, and he is keeping deathly silence with respect to all of the main current political issues.

During his term as the Deputy Minister of Finance, Kasyanov earned a nickname “Misha Two Percent”. Allegedly, he has demanded a two-percent kickback from the Western bankers for deciding the issue on repayment of a credit. Today the adherents of the former Prime Minister repeat that those accusations were false. However, the nickname “Misha Two Percent” stuck to the retired politician regardless of corruption suspicions. Whether Kasyanov took kickbacks or not his rating is hardly higher than notorious two percent. To win a presidential election it is not enough. The former Prime Minister is making it clear that he may participate in the election campaign.

Only naive people can think that a person without any virtues may not be a President of Russia. Vladimir Putin’s political career confirms the opposite. In a sense it was exactly his faceless image that became Putin’s great competitive advantage in the late 1990s. Yet Putin’s coming to power was stipulated by two reasons. Firstly, the Russians didn’t know him, so they could give him any features, even mutually exclusive ones. Everyone could invent his or her own Putin and create this character for himself like it can be done in a construction game for kids. Secondly, the power elite groups had rallied around him. Worried by a perspective of Yevgheniy Primakov coming to power backed by a coalition of provincial governors, elites in the center were ready to support anybody who looked like having a good chance to prevent this disaster.

As to Kasyanov people know him. They are not afraid of him. During his stay in office he did nothing that could make him unpopular. In fact, he hardly did anything at all. His government was remarkable for its inactivity and famous for being reluctant to make any important decisions. For a Russian politician this isn’t such a bad record. But hardly an inspiring one either. People unhappy with the current situation in the country can’t hope that Kasyanov is the person to bring about a dramatic change.

As regarding the power elite groups, they are no longer consolidated. But Kasyanov who is going to be a candidate for the presidency pins his hopes on them. He neither conducts any campaign, nor enlists his followers, nor promises anything. He is idly waiting till his loyal subjects offer him the “crown of Monomakh” (one of the Russian tsar fasces).

Strange as it may seem, this inactivity appears to hypnotize the bureaucrats. The political and social crisis is developing in Russia. Even the economic growth can not prevent it. The authorities are getting less and less popular, the bureaucrats including those of the highest rank are taken aback and often frightened. They are accustomed to stability and comfort and now are surely concerned about the question “what is in store for us?”. Vladimir Putin’s presidency can not be everlasting, so the issue about his successor arises.

In this situation Mikhail Kasyanov sets himself the only target. He is going to make the Russian bureaucrats consider him as a candidate who is fit for everybody, who is approved by the West, convenient for China, accepted by the opposition and not hostile toward current officials. His political insipidity becomes attractive. However, there is a rub: how to impose such a candidate on the electorate. But this is of the least interest for Kasyanov. It’s bureaucrats who are in charge of dealing with the electorate. The most important thing is to convince them.

In the long run, the question “what to do after retiring?” is surely of concern for Vladimir Putin, and even more so for his environs. For them the issue of succession is not who the new President will be and what he will do for Russia. The only important thing is the way the new President will treat them personally. Kasyanov is not spiteful by nature and he bears no malice to the Kremlin. Thus, he can run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

During the “color revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine we witnessed how the official successor became the President after he had gone to opposition. In Russia the same scenario can take place in the inverse order. The candidate who performs the moderate opposition will be approved by the authorities as the official successor and come to power.

Thus, Mikhail Kasyanov may prove to be Putin’s official successor. It will be convenient for the bureaucrats. The consequences of that decision for the country are another thing. People need the change of policy but not staff. Kasyanov does not offer that.

The author is a Director of The Institute for Globalization Studies. The article is written specially for "Eurasian Home".

June 10, 2005