Russia began its march to Central Asia not the day Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin celebrated his birthday, but the day the first guns had banged in the city of Andijan. Unlike the Aurora cruiser’s salvos the Andijan shots were not dry, but alike the legendary cruiser’s salvos they marked the beginning of a new era. This time it was the new era for Tashkent.

The events in Andijan have drastically restricted the range of the international contacts for Uzbekistan. As a matter of fact, there remained only two countries, China and Russia, which supported Karimov’s regime. They offered their hand to Tashkent right away after the events in Andijan. But in politics one has to pay for the timely succour. And in case of Uzbekistan this payment came to be too high.

It is dangerous for Tashkent to put its stakes on China, the latter is not to be trifled with. Moreover, this kind of relationships can harm not only Uzbekistan. That is why any move in this direction is just nonsensical. And yet, right after the Andijan events Islom Karimov went to Beijing. It was rather an ostentatious flight that vaguely resembles famous Russian Prime-Mister Primakov’s uey over the Atlantics. In such a manner Tashkent hoped to make it clear for Moscow that Russia for Uzbekistan is not the only way out of the arising international isolation. But Tashkent failed to knock down the price and now it is ready to accept virtually all the stipulations of Moscow which had tried so hard to restore its influence in Central Asia.

There is a song that is very popular in Uzbekistan. It is called “Andijan polka”. It has a very hot refrain: “I will not come to you; it will be you who comes to me”. It seems this song gives a true and fair view of the present concept of relationships between the two countries: Islom Karimov is ready to sacrifice many things, if not everything, to plead his suit with Russia. Russia is both the last love and the last hope for him.

On Putin’s birthday the President of Uzbekistan brought forth a frank confession. He said that Russia was getting more and more attractive. And all at once he made a serious proposal: “Now we see hard times and we realize more and more that we need each other. It is essential for us to become allies”. “Thank you very much. Uzbekistan’s good feelings towards Russia are mutual”, replied Putin.

The President of Russia made a point of joined efforts in the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking. “Uzbekistan is in the foreground in the fight against terrorism, and we as well do know what it means to deal with the moss-troopers trained in cross-bordered countries”, said Putin. By linking in such an ornate style Andijan and Beslan, Putin has virtually accepted Karimov’s proposal.

If we look at the political map, it strikes the eye that Russia is a long and narrow country. It is absolutely impermissible for an empire. That is why Tashkent (not Astana, Bishkek or Dushanbe) has always been Russia’s major stronghold. It assures the safety of Russia’s south frontiers. So, the signing by Uzbekistan of the Collective Security Treaty (Tashkent has avoided signing the Treaty for a long time, which made the Treaty to be a kind of defective) is now getting inevitable. And it might be the biggest diplomatic success of Russia. Beyond all doubt, now Tashkent and Moscow will easily settle the problem of Uzbek debt to Russia as well.

What needs to be emphasized is that Karimov’s geopolitical initiative was shown right on the eve of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s tour over Central Asia, during which she visited Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan (she did not go to Uzbekistan because of Andijan events). The quick rapprochement between Russia and Uzbekistan has made the leaders of the aforementioned countries to think over the tempting offers, which they surely got from Ms. Rice, more carefully.

However, the shortcomings of the alliance between Russia and Uzbekistan are evident. First of all, the alliance is nondurable and will last as long as Moscow would be able to keep Islom Karimov’s regime. It is apparent that this way Russia will be involuntarily involved in the political processes that take place in Uzbekistan.

At any rate, judging from the amount of dirt which appears in the Russian press one can draw a conclusion that the fight for power has already begun. The member of the State Duma Committee on the CIS affairs Kanstantin Zatulin, who knows the ropes of Oriental scheming, believes that “the President of Uzbekistan should beware of internal plots not excepting those from the part of his environs”.

This remark is very precise.

Akram Murtazaev is a laureate of The Russian Journalist Award “Zolotoye Pero” ("The Golden Pen").

The article is written specially for "Eurasian Home".

October 14, 2005