BORIS KAGARLITSKY, MOSCOW
THE CHECHEN DARK AGES
It is not a secret that Ramzan Kadyrov wants to become president of Chechnya. But till recently he couldn’t – he was too young. And in the Kremlin, they simply didn’t want to put all their eggs in one basket.
When back in 2004 Akhmad Kadyrov, Ramzan’s father, was assassinated in a bomb attack and the presidential post became vacant, the federal authorities preferred to promote to the post a dark horse and an obvious pawn Alu Alkhanov. The logic of this nomination was similar to the one that worked in the Middle Ages – it is preferable to have a weak sovereign – he will depend on his benefactors and will act at their behest.
But in reality it is not the federal forces that have control over the situation in the Chechen republic – it is controlled by the armed forces loyal to the Kadyrov clan, the so called “Kadyrovites”. And this situation is more convenient for the federal center: casualties among the federal troops have significantly reduced and what is more important, Kadyrovites have succeeded where Russian generals have failed – they have managed to restore order in the troubled republic. And even though they haven’t totally eliminated rebellions, now the latter have less support of the local community.
Unlike officials from Moscow who acted only by the means of force, members of the Kadyrov clan were more forehanded – knowing the rules of the game they acted just like feudal lords in medieval Europe: they bribed some of the local leaders, pitted against one another the others and suppressed those dissentient, but again, did it with the hands of their adversaries, not with their own.
The fact is that the more barbarized becomes the country during the war, the more effective become obsolete medieval political methods.
Kadyrov Jr. wanted the Kremlin to reward his loyalty. Just as a medieval lord would do, he considered Chechnya to be his fiefdom and expected the Empire to secure his right for it.
After Ramzan Kadyrov was nominated Chechen Prime Minister, he started to consolidate power around this post ousting president Alu Alkhanov. The latter didn’t have a sporting chance in this confrontation, so it came as no surprise when in mid-February Alkhanov was appointed Deputy Justice Minister of Russia. Chechnya has handled the problem of succession to the throne a year and a half prior to the whole Russia. Finally the fiefdom has been returned to the feudal lord.
As long as Kadyrov Jr. manages to maintain peace in Chechnya and prove his loyalty to the Empire, Moscow will turn a blind eye to the republic’s internal political and social life and the extent to which it meets the criteria of the constitutional state. In essence, the Chechen fiefdom of the Kadyrov family has moved quite far in gaining independence – now it is rather a protectorate of an Empire than a territory of the Federation. The loyalty oath to the federal government is practically all that connects the region and the federal center. We should admit however, that this oath is not a mere formality in the feudal system under which the Chechens live nowadays.
It should seem that the new distribution of power is a win-win situation. But Moscow wants guarantees that Kadyrov Jr. will manage to maintain order and stability in the republic when he consolidates power in his hands.
Soon after Alkhanov was recalled from the presidential office to the capital of the Empire and Kadyrov was left in charge, there have been new developments in the Chechen republic: a lawsuit was filed against Sulim Yamadayev, Hero of Russia, commander of the Special Battalion “East” (Vostok). Those who follow the situation in the Northern Caucasus know that the Yamadayev clique is the only adversary of the Kadyrov clan in the pro-Moscow camp. As both groups are loyal to Moscow, it has been trying to delicately maneuver between the two, which is a challenging task for that very reason that the two clans are at enmity. It was possible to balance between the two antagonistic groupings as long as neutral and powerless Alkhanov was the head of the republic. But now the status quo has changed.
The scuffle is not limited to legal proceedings. On February 8 relatives of the field commander loyal to Yamadayev Khamzat Arsamakov disappeared. Brothers Yunus and Yusup Arsamakov disappeared without a trace. Their car was discovered later with traces of blood in the cabin.
Now we can await a back strike. For the equestrian code of honor obliges to undertake the challenge. So the war-ravaged republic won’t have rest in the near future.
The situation is reminiscent of the plot of the “Shadow Warrior” by Akira Kurosawa. As long as the powerless lower-class criminal impersonates the dead warlord, the fragile balance among the clans of the fiefdom remains stable. But when an energetic legitimate heir occupies the throne, this equilibrium is shattered.
In the near future we will have a unique chance to compare contemporary Chechnya and the medieval Japan.
Boris Kagarlitsky is a Director of The Institute of Globalization and Social Movements
February 22, 2007
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