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THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE
DMITRY VYDRIN,
Professor of Political Science, Kyiv
The first conclusion drawn from the preliminary results of the first round of the presidential elections in Ukraine is that the outcome of virtually all public opinion polls was true. It means that Ukraine’s sociology is highly developed and the Ukrainian experts, with the rare exception, are independent. An effort was made to hold a politically committed exit poll – in the interests of Yuliya Tymoshenko.
The second conclusion is that in the January 17 elections Yuliya Tymoshenko made three system mistakes. Firstly, as I have already said, the exit poll with the results in the interests of Yuliya Tymoshenko was made. She cannot use this technology in the second round, as no one would believe “her” sociologists.
Secondly, Mrs. Tymoshenko was going to prohibit the people from voting at home through taking the matter to court. As a result, not only Yuliya Tymoshenko’s opponents, but also those who wanted to vote for her in the second round at home, got angry with Yuliya Tymoshenko.
Thirdly, about 3 thousand Georgian representatives, who came to Ukraine as observers, had neither appropriate skills nor appropriate official documents. They were given certificates of the “Vechernie Vedomosti” newspaper, which is controlled by Yuliya Tymoshenko, so that they could get to polling stations. It is unclear why a newspaper needs 3 thousand correspondents!
Now Ukraine has to apologize to the international community and restore the authority and the status of international observers.
I was an observer in the Uzbek parliamentary elections. Only five Ukrainian political scientists were invited, since few political scientists have the necessary skills and know the Uzbek laws. But the small country, Georgia, has sent several thousand observers to Ukraine!
Those three mistakes could become fatal for Yuliya Tymoshenko. If the elections are honest, Viktor Yanukovych has a good chance to become President. I think that the votes of the candidates, who did not make it into the second round, will be distributed between Yuliya Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych equally or randomly.
According to the public opinion polls, Arseniy Yatsenuk's supporters may not come to polling stations in the second round. Some public opinion polls show that Serhyi Tigipko's supporters will vote for Viktor Yanukovych, other public opinion polls show that they will vote for Yuliya Tymoshenko.
January 19, 2010
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