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CRISIS OF THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
MERAB PACHULIA,
Director of the Tbilisi-based Georgian Opinion Research Business International – GORBI
Eurasian Home: “What is the reaction of the Georgian society to the Georgian-Russian conflict? Does it cause growth of the public discontent, and if so, what party do people blame - Russian or Georgian?”
Georgian society anticipated deterioration of the relations coming and we are not surprised given the nature of the current political relationship between the two countries. Moreover, it’s hard to believe that the Russian officials intend to punish only Saakshvili’s regime and “not the general public.” It seems that the Russian government is collectively punishing all Georgians including ethnic Russian minority residing in Georgia. Saakshvili and “his regime” does not use the services that have been cut, including banking, postal, transportation, visa, etc. Besides, there are always more effective ways to discredit Saakashvili and “his third countries supporters” and that could be done via trying to forge closer ties with Georgia at all levels: economic, social and political. In fact, what has been done will have just the opposite effect and move Georgia closer to the West and NATO, and bridges back to Russia will be burned.
Mr. Putin’s trust rating has been diminishing in Georgia for the last two years as did general positive assessment of Russia in nationwide opinion polls. In the run-up to the “Rose Revolution”, President Putin enjoyed higher trust ratings in Georgia than did elected Georgia’s President Edward Shevardnadze.
But now the situation has changed for it becomes evident that Russia has affected all spheres of the Georgian society and the economy: wire transfers, agricultural exports, mineral water, transportation networks, separating families, relatives and friends.
Eurasian Home: “Why did the Georgian authorities detain the Russian military officers and the Russian authorities block the transportation and trade links with Georgia?”
Intelligence is conducted in all countries and most often is tolerated by the society, however in this case the arrest of the Russian officers was intended to show that Georgia is tired of Russia’s policy in the conflict zones and among ethnic populations. From the part of Russia there has been endless and non-productive rhetoric about peaceful conflict resolution. But according to official statements, Russian peacekeepers actually have another agenda, and it has more to do with keeping the conflict frozen and maintaining the status quo.
Now it seems, Russia was caught red-handed in the act and this was embarrassing for the Kremlin. It was naïve of Russia to think that there would be political blowback in the municipal elections in Georgia and that the public would blame the current Georgian leadership and government for its problems.
Eurasian Home: “What are the prospects of the conflict settlement? On which conditions could the parties come to terms?”
Under the current circumstances there seems to be no compromise with Russia over the breakaway regions. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are Georgia’s internal matters and territorial integrity is something that Georgia has all rights to achieve. Any compromise with Russia would be political suicide. Saakashvili was elected to office on the promise of restoring territorial integrity by “any and all means.” The first option was to do so via peaceful negotiations. But mind you that any compromise that falls short of promises made to the Georgian people will bring to nought chances of this government to stay in office. Russia and Georgia have failed in all efforts to find a solution. Even if Georgia has a shift in policy towards Russia and try to find a solution that would serve both sides, this would put road blocks in the path towards the NATO and European integration. Our opinion polls consistently confirm that over the last 8 years vast majority of Georgians are very supportive towards Georgia’s integration in the EU and NATO.
One possible solution would be to refer the matter to an international organization that is actually involved in conflict resolution and political and economic incentives be part of the peace package and that be buttressed with security guarantees, the right to return home and financial compensation for IDPs (internally displaced persons) and other affected persons and families.
October 6, 2006
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