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OPPOSITION RALLIES IN GEORGIA
MERAB PACHULIA,
Director of the Tbilisi-based Georgian Opinion Research Business International – GORBI
Eurasian Home: “What were the opposition’s goals in the campaign against the Georgian authorities? Did they imply to hold the parliamentary election in spring 2008 or to dismiss president Saakashvili?”
The situation on the ground was developing quickly, not only in terms of the protests but also in terms of the opposition’s demands. This could be seen at the level of rhetoric and the slogans “Georgia without Misha”, “Go away from here!”, etc. It should be mentioned here that those who gathered on the Rustaveli avenue were steadily growing “more professional” and united, which was in large part due to the reaction of the authorities and their efforts to underscore legitimate demands for constitutional changes. It is clear that the spin campaign by many in Saakashvili’s team was a back blow for the opposition, but it had quite the opposite effect – only bringing the opposition camp closer together. Unwillingness to discuss the demands of the opposition and playing hardliner didn’t benefit the government. Though, initially the government thought that people would quickly cave in, but people stayed on waving banners stating that they “are not afraid”.
Head of the Georgian Parliament Nino Burjanadze has declared during a recent parliamentary session that she appreciates the concerns of the citizens and the government will address these issues, but there will be no compromise with the opposition camp. Both sides have been exchanging recriminations, and the government insists that the opposition is funded by criminals and those whose loyalties are in question. The ruling government has totally dismissed the possibility of holding early elections in spring 2008 and has claimed that the elections will be held according to plan as a sign of stability. Amongst the main formal reasons for postponing election is upcoming Russian election; however, some pundits say that with the same success we could have our own elections held earlier rather than later. In any case, this motivation has convinced neither the opposition nor the general public, and the same holds true for the purported willingness of the president to open a dialogue with the opposition about changing the election law (reducing 7% threshold).
Though, both sides claim that they are ready for dialogue, it is hard to imagine that the dialogue could take place, neither of the parties wants to cede and the standoff continues – with both sides hoping to win in the end. Now tactics are changing a bit and several petitions signed by Saakashvili’s supporters have been circulating these days reading that all this falls into the hands of the Russians and it is not in the interest of Georgia’s National Security. The rhetoric against current regime is becoming even harsher with pointing finger and more serious allegations. It seems that there is no person left to act as a middle man between the two parties, but, perhaps, for Mr. Bidzina Ivanishvili, who has never presented himself before media, but is known as the most charitable person in Georgia who assisted governments and society a great deal and has creditability, since he has distanced himself from political life. However, this is wishful thinking.
What aggravates the situation is the serious accusations made by both sides against each other. Both parties labeled each other traitors, terrorists – they seem to compete in blaming each other for being closer allied with the interests of the Russian leadership. Russia now is the most unpopular country in Georgia and the West (presumably the United States) is presented as its counterbalance in the region. However, very few believe in a good cop/bad cop scenario. The real problem is that we are not using our own resources and intellectual fortitude to sit down around the same table without asking the big brothers’ permission and try to find a win-win solution. Unfortunately, it is forgotten that besides the opposition camp and Saakshvili’s supporters, there is a third group of people who are not connected with any of the two opposing groups and who want to distance themselves from the current mess. These people are totally fed up with the government, name calling, and networks of patronage; they understand that even with popular revolutions that can bring about rapid change at the top, nothing will actually change in their lives – and the situation can even turn to the worse.
Eurasian Home: “Do the demonstrations have local support – and what social groups support the opposition?”
All layers of the Georgian society are involved in the current protests. The opposition comprises representatives of different cultural and age groups, including ethnic minorities and even new immigrants from Africa and other countries who have married Georgian citizens. The collective distaste for Saakashvili has brought a wide segment of the society together and people have closed ranks for common objectives – free elections, rule of law, a system where the power of one person can be held in check. All the gains made by Saakshvili and the current government have melted during the last two years. If the structure of government were based on representation and not a free election held under conditions of extreme circumstances, it would be almost impossible for National Movement to be the constitutional majority in the Parliament. However, the difficult economic situation, and more importantly, government’s failed efforts to provide employment are too obvious – and people understand that they have been abused more than once. They know what it costs to live and how inflation numbers have been carefully manipulated; and that they cannot buy into the impressive GNP figures when they are told how well off they are living in comparison to what they had before – that the nation is doing things right and is on the path to prosperity.
These street protests are the first time ever that the opposition has been able to agree on a single issue; the various camps have been able to take a concerted stand against the current government. Literally, Georgians have an even-handed political struggle going on – and it is the wide spectrum of oppositional parties up against what is perceived as an organized and elite corrupted from the top selfish government that puts it needs first, a government that will do anything to cling on to power, even revert to the use of force and crack down on basic human rights. Also, recent political history, e.g. peaceful withdrawal of president Shevardnadze set forth a questionable precedent of getting rid of government without blood being spilled and rigged elections, and this is still remembered well and it also ads fuel on a blazing fire – and how this government is not willing to give into the demands of the collective will and aspirations of the people for a better and secure future.
In short, there are few segments of society that are not in one way or another involved in this struggle, either individually or collectively. The discontent is growing and no matter what is the staying power of either side, it is now clear that the country’s leadership has lost its creditability and will not be able to continue as if everything has been forgotten. Even the media are coming out with more engaging articles and commentaries – not wiling to cow-in to the unofficial censorship that has existed in Georgia.
Eurasian Home: “Was Russia orchestrating the mass rallies, or was it the West that played crucial role in organizing the rallies?”
It is hard to denote the actual role that Russia has played or is playing in the current political standoff; however, one thing is certain, Russia has become a convenient scapegoat and device of subterfuge with both sides. The old saying that a country that does not have a domestic policy must have an external enemy still holds true. Both sides are ready to blame Russia for all the ills of the society as it is often difficult to lay blame directly on those actually responsible. If the conflicting parties fail to reach some agreement and find the way out of this situation, Russia is unlikely to be willing to act as a mediator, even if it would be requested to do so. Interestingly enough, the West is practically in the same boat with Russia and it would necessarily be in their interests to meddle in Georgia’s interior political conflict. Not without reason, many consider the arrival of Saakashvili as a decision taken from outside and not homegrown.
Nonetheless, the government and the opposition can still find common ground over Georgia’s NATO membership and European integration. The only debated issue from this perspective is whether the current government will lead Georgia’s drive for integration or a united and strong opposition will take the initiative and have its members represented in these structures.
And the bottom line is whether the ruling party or the opposition will be able to enjoy the fruits along the path of European and NATO integration, which is the objective for any country that seeks a semblance of democracy in this tough neighborhood.
November 8, 2007
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