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DETENTION OF THE RUSSIAN OFFICERS IN GEORGIA
GHIA NODIA,
Political Scientist, Director of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi, Georgia
One cannot say for sure if the Russian military officers accused of espionage and detained by Georgian authorities are guilty or not. But on the whole, it is impossible to disclaim the (Russian - EH) intelligence activities.
This can be confirmed by the current situation in the Russian-Georgian relations. It is no news that the Russian authorities, particularly the military, regard Georgia as the U.S. political springboard. That suggests the idea of the intelligence activities.
As to the objectives of the Georgian authorities, I think that the detention of the military officers is consistent with the logic of the development of the situation during the last months. Georgia’s authorities are seriously concerned about the change of the regime.
The actions towards the opposition with its leader Igor Georgadze and the Russian military officers are aimed at averting that scenario.
Apart from that, Georgia uses the psychological effect. Against the background of the worsening of the Russian-Georgian relations Georgia makes it clear that it is not afraid of Russia’s threats.
Partly, that strengthens the regime since such actions do not cause the public protest. The same is true of the opposition, which except its pro-Russian part, does not come out against the accusations against Russia.
The situation is a bit different with the municipal elections set for the beginning of October. The party in power which according to all prognosis will get the majority of mandates in the municipal councils constitutes one side of this battle. The existing electoral system gives all “free” places to the winning party and thus fosters this scenario.
The divided opposition is running risk to collect minimum votes in the forthcoming elections is the second side.
The opposition didn’t even managed to stand together on the elections boycott issue. The Laborist party and the New Rights were the only oppositional forces that supported the initiative.
Later the Laborists changed their mind. The New Rights would also refuse to put the elections under boycott if their candidate Russian-Georgian businessmen Budri Patarkatsishvili participated in the Tbilisi mayoral elections. But he withdrew his candidature and as a result he New Rights are alone to boycott the elections.
September 29, 2006
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