ALEH NOVIKAU, MINSK
A PREPARATORY YEAR
The format of the 2010-2011 election campaigns is taking shape in Belarus
While Russian and Belarusian officials were carrying on negotiations on the Russian oil prices, on which 50% of Belarus’ annual GDP depends, Minsk hosted the big hockey holiday. The local team of veterans with its unchallenged captain, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, played in a tournament to win the Belarusian President’s prize. Simultaneously, during the ceremony of granting awards to cultural workers, Aliaksandr Lukashenka delivered a long speech.
The people took a keen interest in the President’s first public appearances in 2010. The reason is the local councils elections scheduled for spring 2010. At the same time, the presidential election campaign is beginning now (the elections will be held in January 2011). One could forecast the authorities’ tactics in the coming elections proceeding from the nature of the events and the speeches’ contents.
The President is true to himself. The ritual tournament and granting of awards were planned long ago. Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s speech seemed to be that of an inveterate diehard. He criticized his enemies, praised himself, and even remembered the promise he gave five years ago: then he promised the Belarusians to increase their average salary to $500 a month within the next few years.
This way, at first sight, the 2010 presidential elections may repeat the 2006 elections. Aliaksandr Lukashenka will win the opposition political midgets again. This is indirectly confirmed by the appointment as Information Minister of an official, who is famous for his reactionary views.
Ironically, such a format of the elections is good for many opponents of the regime, namely for the opposition segment in which the leadership generations are changing. Young and infamous presidential candidates are unlikely to win Aliaksandr Lukashenka. During the 2010 campaigns it is much more important for them to show themselves as potential successors to Aliaksandr Milinkevich, the current opposition leader, who can take part in the 2010 elections for the last time because of his age.
Another important factor is the position of the U.S. funds that financed the past election campaigns of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s opponents. Now, for many reasons, they are inactive.
The most important point in favour of acceptance of the election format, which is imposed by the authorities, is economical. The opposition intellectuals believe that Aliaksandr Lukashenka, who is going to run for president as a left populist, will spend his last resources in 2010. Then, after the elections, the global liberal reforms are expected to be carried out in Belarus.
As a matter of fact, many people think that the authorities will have to correct the vaunted model of the Belarusian stability soon.
Of course, the “oil war”, which has been waged against Russia for two weeks, made the social atmosphere a little tense.
This is the third “war” for the last two years. For that time the Belarusians has got used to the cataclysms named “energy wars”. There is a predictable scenario of the conflict: Moscow insists on partial or full privatization of some Belarusian enterprises, threatening to impose new tariffs on Belarus otherwise. Minsk reacts by hyperbolizing its geopolitical importance for the Russian defense in Russian ordinary citizens’ eyes. Minsk may drift to the West for a short time. Simultaneously, the loyal press was letting the genie of nationalism out of the bottle. As a result of such brainwashing, even the oppositionists were ready to come over to Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s side in order to save the sovereignty.
But the current “war” is unusual, which perplexes Belarusians. The mass media write much less about an anti-Belarusian conspiracy among some representatives of the Russian elite. There is also too little information about the negotiations, which is logical since, as many local observers admit, Belarus has a bad chance of winning Russia. Even if Belarus do not allows the Russian capital to get to petroleum processing plants, this sector may become unprofitable.
Terrible and intriguing things take place in other economic sectors. Over the past one year the Belarusian export has been reduced by almost forty percent. The recession affected the pride of the Belarusian economy – motor industry too. In addition, the bankers in other countries doubt the solvency of Belarus whose debt is over $ 20 billion.
So, according to the undercover consensus between the authorities and their opponents, the year 2010 will be preparatory before a new stage of the Belarus’ political life, if the crisis does not prevent this.
The following events took place within the 2010 first two weeks. The government concern “Belneftekhim” decided to increase the oil products prices by 10% on the average. The Belarusian authorities, before completing the negotiations on conditions of the Russian oil supplies and transit in 2010, asked Russia to lower the gas price in 2010. The same week, the construction of the nuclear power station was not started, as it had been planned. Evidently, without Russia’s credit, which should be as big as Minsk needs, the widely-advertised nuclear programme will not be launched.
The crucial thing is to live till 2011.
The author is a columnist of the Belarusian weekly newspaper “Nasha Niva”.
January 26, 2010
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