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DISMISSAL OF GEORGIAN PRIME MINISTER VLADIMIR GURGENIDZE

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DAVID APRASIDZE,
Chairman of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi, Georgia

I believe that Georgia's Prime Minister Vladimir Gurgenidze was dismissed over both the Russia-Georgia armed conflict and the internal political situation. The August conflict in South Ossetia made it clear that the policy, pursued by the Georgian government must be changed and some reshuffles were necessary.  

But not only are those factors driving Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to take decisive steps to initiate new economic and political reforms. Saakashvili wants to show its people and the West that the Cabinet has resources to resume the reforms and that the authorities are ready to use new approaches in their policy.

The EU and U.S. position is of crucial importance here. Mr. Saakashvili thinks that his government should be active, thus showing the West that they are willing to reform Georgia. 

The candidate for Premiership Grigol Mgaloblishvili is a new political figure in Georgia. He is a career diplomat, but he wasn’t well-known as a politician and a member of Mikheil Saakashvili’s team. There are rumors that he is close to the President’s entourage, but this is nothing but rumor. 

Meanwhile, the Georgian opposition is going to commemorate the anniversary of the 7 November 2007 events holding a demonstration. Those are the opposition members who failed to be elected to the Parliament in May 2008. Now they are seeking to unite round former Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli and former Speaker Nino Burjanadze.

I am skeptical about the demonstration. It will take place but it is unlikely to receive such a public support that would threaten Saakashvili’s positions. Firstly, it will be difficult for the opposition to create the pre-revolutionary situation that emerged in the autumn 2007. They let their chance slip with the people coming to mistrust them. 

Secondly, the Georgia-Russia armed conflict did not affect Mikheil Saakashvili’s popularity adversely. He is less popular than during the January 2008 presidential election. For all that Mr. Saakashvili’s rating is over 50%, which makes him a political leader without rivals. Nino Burjanadze and Zurab Nogaideli enjoy popularity ratings of around 5%. Here the main factor is the West’s support too. So, Saakashvili is said to have no alternatives.

October 29, 2008




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