BORIS KAGARLITSKY, MOSCOW
VICIOUS CIRCLE
Russia is confronted by three major opponents – Estonia, Ukraine and Georgia. Apparently, their importance, reputation and might are most matched against the scale of modern Russia’s political ambitions. A country can be judged by the opponents it faces.
The Russian foreign policy boringly runs around in circles: the row with Estonia on the historic past, the squabbles between Moscow and Kyiv over the Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the confrontation with Georgia because of its breakaway republics etc. After having made a full circle we are back to square one - another conflict with Georgia.
Previously, the Russian authorities tried to vex Tbilisi by establishing a ban on its wine and mineral water exports. This time the Russian fighter jets have flown over South Ossetia, the breakaway territory of Georgia. It begs question whose airspace it is. On the one hand, South Ossetia de jure belongs to Georgia, and no one (including Russia) has recognized its independence. On the other hand, there is no Georgian authority, so it is the local officials who should grant permission to overflights. And the local authorities have no objections to the Russian fighter jets flying over South Ossetia.
Georgia holds war games, draws up the troops to its borders with South Ossetia. Sometimes the troops shoot at Ossetian separatists. What else should they do there?
After the Russian fighter jets had flown over South Ossetia, Tbilisi decided to recall its Ambassador to Russia. Really, as if a war is going to break out!
The Georgian-Russian conflict gives rise to a feeling of sickening déjà vu and seems to be endless, since the recurrent exchanges of insults lead only to surge of nationalism in both Russia and Georgia. Having flung mud at each other, the parties return to the normal life as if nothing happened. Neither Georgia nor Russia has its strategy or long-term policy. How can they be at war with each other over South Ossetia and Abkhazia?!
It is important to realize why the parties need those conflicts. Tbilisi regards the clash with Russia as a good opportunity to consolidate the ruling regime which is weakened by the domestic opposition. There is no serious opposition in Russia. So, why does Moscow want the external conflicts?
There can be two answers to this question: either the foreign policy pursued by the Russian government towards its former territories is determined by the spontaneous inertia and the necessity to thoughtlessly react to external irritants, or it reflects some infighting within the ruling group rather than between the authorities and the opposition.
Both reasons are likely to be the case. As a rule, Russia didn’t initiate the conflicts with the former Soviet republics, but it reacted to external irritants very aggressively, even with a kind of joy and did everything possible to show its willingness to protect its status of a great power. The reasons are Russia’s hurt pride, the problems, which have not been solved since 1991 when the first Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his team tried to dissolve the Soviet Union as soon as possible, and quite explainable annoyance excited by the constant provocations by the leaders of the New Independent States. Moscow is often right in terms of the name of the game, but its aggressive reaction does not favor the solution of a problem, and, what is more, it aggravates the conflict.
It is strange that the authorities do not see that or, on the contrary, they see that and act deliberately. They are going to take advantage of the existing problems rather than to solve them.
I doubt that the conflict with Georgia will reach the point of political hysteria in 2008. Even the last time in 2006 the negative image of Georgia created by the Russian authorities wasn’t hostile enough. This time, no serious efforts are being made to do it at all.
Though, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will have more headaches. The new president had barely got to the bottom of his powers and responsibilities when he was proposed settling a new external conflict, which is obviously unsolvable. Let him solve this conflict instead of carrying out domestic reforms that will all the same come to nothing.
So, the new president of Russia will have to deal with football and the relations with Georgia. And Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is to curb the inflation, to address the issues of heating season and housing construction. If the situation with football has improved a little, all the other problems are expected to remain unsettled for a long time.
This seems to be a new power formula for the Russian bureaucracy. Let the high-ranking officials fall into a senseless rut. In fact the middle-ranking officials will run the country, and nobody will prevent them from doing that.
Boris Kagarlitsky is Director of the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements
July 17, 2008
|
