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OIL CONFLICT BETWEEN MINSK AND MOSCOW MAY MAKE BELARUS’S POLITICAL SYSTEM COLLAPSE
SERGEY NIKOLYUK,
Political analyst, Minsk
The customs duty on the Russian oil for Minsk is the issue of the Belarusian regime’s survival. That’s why Minsk reacts so sharply to Moscow’s unwillingness to supply over 5 million tons of oil without charging the duty.
What surprised me most of all is that Aliaksandr Lukashenka gave the Belarusian people various social promises at the end of 2009. I’ve analyzed the recent public opinion polls, and I can say that the society hasn’t put pressure on the Belarusian authorities concerning the social issues. But Aliaksandr Lukashenka reminded the people of his promises, that their average monthly income should be $500. He spoke about that as long ago as 2006.
Mr. Lukashenka’s mentioning this figure means that it is sacred, so all the plans and other figures were adjusted to $500. Therefore, the GDP annual growth was expected to make up 11-13%. This is during the global financial crisis!
Why did this happen? I believe that the authorities are not adequate any more. Aliaksandr Lukashenka has always said that he took a realistic view of things. As Mr. Lukashenka has been Belarus’ President for 16 years and there have not been strong figures in his entourage, he ceased to be a realist. No government officials objected to the figures’ being adjusted to $500.
Now it appears that if Russia does not grant Belarus preferences, those plans will fall to the ground. How can this problem be solved? This is not the first conflict between Moscow and Minsk. Till now, as a result of the conflicts, Belarus’ demands have been almost fulfilled.
Russia is still a traditional empire rather than a colonial one, which is a kind of a business project. A traditional empire is based on the idea of disseminating the Orthodoxy or the Communism. And an idea should be paid for. Unlike a colonial empire, in a traditional empire the resources go from the center to the provinces. So it is not fortuitous that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, while meeting Belarusian journalists in 2009, said that the Russian preferences as the reduced prices for source of raw materials cost $50 billion.
It is not clear whether Moscow will make a compromise again. Russia laid down tough conditions, so it is not known how make Russia compromise here.
As regards the Belarusian government’s reaction, so far Aliaksandr Lukashenka does not make strongly-worded statements. But everything can occur. Now an oil conflict with Moscow may make Belarus’ political system collapse.
January 14, 2010
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