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GEORGIA TO HOLD EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
ALEXANDER RONDELI,
President of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Tbilisi
It is difficult to forecast the shapes of the presidential election campaign until the state of emergency is lifted. Lifting the state of emergency would make the situation more clear.
However, already now it is evident that the opposition rally and its dispersion will influence the elections significantly. Those events have produced negative consequences for President Mikheil Saakashvili both in terms of domestic and foreign situation. The President and his team will have to win the people’s confidence the hard way.
The opposition will conduct its campaign criticizing the authorities. This may prove to be effective. All in all, should people vote for the opposition, it will mean that they are “against” Saakashvili rather than “for” the opposition. That is, people’s support of the opposition’s candidate will not be full-hearted, regardless of how many candidates the opposition nominates.
Nomination of Levan Gachechiladze, who is known to yield to Saakashvili, is most probably connected with the opposition’s belief that Georgia needs a parliamentary form of government. But in present-day Georgia this system won’t work. We have a rudimentary party system, our political parties are weak. I believe that the opposition implies that the President’s rights should be curtailed and the Premier’s powers should be extended.
The presidential elections, scheduled for January 5, are of crucial importance to the authorities. If the elections are held successfully, Saaakashvili will regain international credibility. But Saakashvili’s power is being seriously challenged. For all that for the time being, he has a better chance of winning the elections than the opposition does.
The Georgian people do not want destabilization of the situation. So, channeling political activity into election campaign would stabilize the situation.
In short, the force that swings the presidential polls, will make it into the Parliament.
The Russian factor can be exploited in the course of the election campaign. Much will depend on the election strategy choice of the President’s team. Russia can try to influence the outcome of the elections through developing cooperation with the local political forces, first and foremost, with the Labor Party.
November 15, 2007
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