Main page                           
Eurasian Home - analytical resource


GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN GEORGIA

Print version

SERGEI MARKEDONOV,
Head of the International Relations Department of the Institute for Policy and Military Analysis, Moscow

I believe that there is no alternative to the incumbent President Mikheil Saakashvili in the forthcoming presidential polls in Georgia. Like it or not, he stands to win the forthcoming elections. The opposition cannot compete with Saakashvili. 

Firstly, the opposition failed to nominate a single candidate. After Levan Gachechiladze had been nominated, several oppositional candidates expressed their wish to run in the presidential election. The opposition lacks leaders that enjoy popular support. Neither do they have a triumvirate like the Saakashvili-Zhvania-Burjanadze alliance that brought Saakashvili to power on the back of the Autumn 2003 Rose Revolution.  

Secondly, the opposition hasn’t scored any achievements to tell the voters about. They criticize Saakashvili because the only thing he has done is build new fountains in Tbilisi. But Saakashvili has at least done this. And one should also keep in mind Saakashvili's role in reintegrating Adjara. 

The opposition has no constructive program. Its members criticize the authorities and nothing but, though many opposition leaders were government officials themselves. So, the opposition does not have much popular support. 

Thirdly, unlike Eduard Shevardnadze in the early 2000s, Saakashvili still enjoys public confidence.   

Apart from that, as seditious as this idea might sound, Saakashvili’s victory may be in Russia’s interest. Many opposition leaders criticize Russia more than the Georgian President.  

As regards the Prime Minister's resignation, it is typical of the presidential election campaigns in many New Independent States. A leader’s most important task in the course of the elections is to deprive the opposition of its slogans. Saakashvili has done it successfully. Saakashvili has appropriated the first slogan about fixing different dates for the presidential and parliamentary elections when deciding to hold the presidential election in January, 2008. Saakashvili has also taken over the second slogan (criticism of the authorities) firing the government.

Thus, the President seems to ill-treat his adherents in order to frighten the opponents.    

November 20, 2007




Our readers’ comments



There are no comments on this article.

You will be the first.

Send a comment

Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Digest

04.12.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: 22 CANDIDATES STAND FOR PRESIDENCY

Some political analysts reckon that the participation of 22 candidates in such a small country is not a common thing. It means that the political responsibility of Georgian culture is too low.

30.11.2007

IWPR: TV AT HEART OF GEORGIAN CRISIS

With Georgia gearing up for a presidential election campaign in January and a degree of normality returning after the recent crisis, the Imedi television station remains at the centre of national and international controversy.

19.11.2007

EURASIANET.ORG: GEORGIA GETS NEW PRIME MINISTER

In an apparent bid to reduce potential support for opposition candidates in Georgia’s upcoming special presidential election, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is reshuffling his government.

09.11.2007

RFE/RL: GEORGIA: AFTER CRACKDOWN ON PROTESTS, PRESIDENT CALLS EARLY POLLS

Saakashvili appeared to offer a concession to his political opponents. He announced he would schedule early presidential elections, moving the vote from next autumn to January 5, 2008.

15.10.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: IS A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT THE ONLY WAY OUT FOR GEORGIA?

While the opposition-minded Republican Party insists on a semi-presidential model, the New Rights and others hail the idea of a constitutional monarchy.

01.10.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: GEORGIA ON FIRE?

Thousands of peoples took to the streets last week to protest Okruashvili’s arrest and the demonstrations are likely to continue this week.


Expert forum
PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA

MALKHAZ SALDADZE

03.12.2007

If to take into account the control of the mass media by the propresidential United National Movement and the authorities’ monopoly on the financial and administrative resources, Saakashvili’s position is more advantageous than that of his rivals.


MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI’S FIRST VISIT AS PRESIDENT WAS TO MOSCOW NOT WASHINGTON

GIGA BOKERIA

23.11.2007

No democratic Georgian government will ever agree with Abkhazia’s independence, because in this territory a few people with the assistance of the large neighboring state and the military aggressively hoisted the flag of ethnic nationalism.


GEORGIA TO HOLD EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

ALEXANDER RONDELI

15.11.2007

The Georgian people do not want destabilization of the situation. So, channeling political activity into election campaign would stabilize the situation. In short, the force that swings the presidential polls, will make it into the Parliament.  


OPPOSITION RALLIES IN GEORGIA

MERAB PACHULIA

15.11.2007

The collective distaste for Saakashvili has brought a wide segment of the society together and people have closed ranks for common objectives – free elections, rule of law, a system where the power of one person can be held in check.

GEORGIA: CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE AUTHORITIES AND THE OPPOSITION

DAVID BERDZENISHVILI

14.11.2007

The international organizations severely criticize the Georgian authorities’ actions - their means of breaking up the rally and suppression of the TV channels “Imedi”, “Kavkasia”. All in all, the Georgian President has reached a deadlock. 


GEORGIAN UNITED OPPOSITION VERSUS SAAKASHVILI

GHIA NODIA

07.11.2007

Now the Georgian opposition needs a leader who can be an alternative to the current President. I doubt that the opposition’s sponsor Badri Patarkatsishvili can become such an alternative leader. Okruashvili is a more attractive political figure.


IS GEORGIA ON THE BRINK OF A NEW CIVIL CONFRONTATION?

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

16.10.2007

Barely had the Saakashvili’s team got rid of Okruashvili, when a much stronger opponent, oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili, who is expected to become leader of the united opposition, came up as a new opponent to Saakashvili.  



Author’s opinion on other topics

THERE ARE NO PRO-RUSSIAN POLITICIANS IN GEORGIA

19 May 2009

What does the current situation in Georgia mean for Russia? On the one hand, the confrontation between the government and the opposition is Georgia’s domestic affair. Whoever wins the struggle, no one would take a pro-Russian position.


FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ROSE REVOLUTION

25 November 2008

The main reason why the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution is not celebrated with a great pomp is that the Georgians are bitterly disappointed with the results of the revolution. In fact, nobody was going to carry out democratic reforms, although the ‘revolutionaries’ had set themselves this goal.


SUMMING UP THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING ON GEORGIA

25 July 2008

I believe that the withdrawal of the Russian railroad troops from Abkhazia and the UN Security Council meeting, which was held on July 21 at Georgia’s request, cannot be directly linked to each other. 


WILL THE VECTOR OF RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS CHANGE?

24 January 2008

It is unlikely that after the election President Mikheil Saakashvili has changed his position on Georgian-Russian relations. For the time being, the statements about his wish to normalize those relations cannot be taken seriously.


RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS

01 March 2006

I would like to analyze the deadlock crisis in the Russian-Georgian relations and to suggest a way out of this crisis.


ABKHAZIA: NEW EASTERN POLICY

29 July 2005

The Georgian minister on conflict settlement, Giorgi Khaindrava, called the recent meeting between the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia a "statehood game." While Georgian officials continue to describe political developments in the breakaway republics in this way, Abkhazia is taking a number of very important political steps that may give its cause a boost.


RUSSIA AND THE CAUCASUS REGION

28 June 2005

Nagorno-Karabakh was the first ethnic conflict that shook the foundations of the political power "vertical" of the Soviet Union and became the detonator that exploded it. It enriched our active political vocabulary with such terms as "ethnic cleansing" and "cleansing of the territory." As a result of the Armenian-Azeri conflict over Karabakh, about 500,000 Armenians had to leave Azerbaijan, and about 200,000 Azerbaijanis had to leave Armenia. Both states (particularly Armenia) have essentially become homogenous mono-ethnic entities. During the armed clashes over Karabakh, Azerbaijan lost 13% of its original territory.


RUSSIAN - GEORGIAN RELATIONS

19 June 2005

Russia's relations with Georgia are one of the most cute and problematic aspects of foreign policy in the Caucasus. Previously "fraternal," i.e. former Soviet republic, Georgia has become one of Moscow's most intractable partners in the former Soviet space.


CAUCASUS IN THE GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT

28 May 2005

The Russian military presence in Georgia has become the key issue of the Caucasian Big Game in the last few months. Discussions of the timeframe and speed of their withdrawal from Georgia overshadowed the problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.


CENTRAL ASIA IN THE GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT

28 May 2005

Many people in Russia see America's presence in the post-Soviet (Eurasian) area as virtually an attempt to end Russia's national sovereignty. Alexander Dugin, a prominent theoretician of Russian traditionalism, recently said the United States was trying to penetrate the "canonical territory" of Russian diplomacy. However, the military-political presence of the world's No.1 superpower in some ex-Soviet republics might become an important stabilizing factor.

 events
 news
 opinion
 expert forum
 digest
 hot topics
 analysis
 databases
 about us
 the Eurasia Heritage Foundation projects
 links
 our authors
Eurasia Heritage Foundation