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GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN GEORGIA
SERGEI MARKEDONOV,
Head of the International Relations Department of the Institute for Policy and Military Analysis, Moscow
I believe that there is no alternative to the incumbent President Mikheil Saakashvili in the forthcoming presidential polls in Georgia. Like it or not, he stands to win the forthcoming elections. The opposition cannot compete with Saakashvili.
Firstly, the opposition failed to nominate a single candidate. After Levan Gachechiladze had been nominated, several oppositional candidates expressed their wish to run in the presidential election. The opposition lacks leaders that enjoy popular support. Neither do they have a triumvirate like the Saakashvili-Zhvania-Burjanadze alliance that brought Saakashvili to power on the back of the Autumn 2003 Rose Revolution.
Secondly, the opposition hasn’t scored any achievements to tell the voters about. They criticize Saakashvili because the only thing he has done is build new fountains in Tbilisi. But Saakashvili has at least done this. And one should also keep in mind Saakashvili's role in reintegrating Adjara.
The opposition has no constructive program. Its members criticize the authorities and nothing but, though many opposition leaders were government officials themselves. So, the opposition does not have much popular support.
Thirdly, unlike Eduard Shevardnadze in the early 2000s, Saakashvili still enjoys public confidence.
Apart from that, as seditious as this idea might sound, Saakashvili’s victory may be in Russia’s interest. Many opposition leaders criticize Russia more than the Georgian President.
As regards the Prime Minister's resignation, it is typical of the presidential election campaigns in many New Independent States. A leader’s most important task in the course of the elections is to deprive the opposition of its slogans. Saakashvili has done it successfully. Saakashvili has appropriated the first slogan about fixing different dates for the presidential and parliamentary elections when deciding to hold the presidential election in January, 2008. Saakashvili has also taken over the second slogan (criticism of the authorities) firing the government.
Thus, the President seems to ill-treat his adherents in order to frighten the opponents.
November 20, 2007
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