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IS GEORGIA ON THE BRINK OF A NEW CIVIL CONFRONTATION?
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi
Probably, the public will not learn in the near future the true reasons behind the scandalous revelations by the former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili as well as the reasons behind his equally scandalous “confessions” when he first retracted his revelations and then quitted politics.
Judging by the leakage from the law enforcement agencies, the authorities managed to break down the “Iron Irakli” by using all the possible ways of putting pressure, including the threat of torture of his family members. In any case, Mikheil Saakashvili managed to neutralize Irakli Okruashvili, at least, until the presidential race is finished. Okruashvili was widely perceived to be one of the main challengers to Saakashvili in the presidential election.
However, both in life and in politics, “the holy place is never empty”. Barely had the Saakashvili’s team got rid of Okruashvili, when a much stronger opponent, oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili, who is expected to become leader of the united opposition, came up as a new opponent to Saakashvili.
Speaking on his own television channel “IMEDI”, Patarkatsishvili straightforwardly announced his political ambitions.
Unlike Okruashvili, before staking such a claim he is likely to have estimated his resources and the potential authorities’ countermeasures. Patarkatsishvili has a lot of resources: the popular national television channel and large sums of money that can be used to finance a large-scale election campaign in Georgia.
The oligarch may have dug up the dirt on the authorities by means of Okruashvili. Patarkatsishvili said that he had met with Okruashvili, and I believe that the latter could have provided the Georgian tycoon with some discreditable materials.
It is clear that Patarkatsishvili took advantage of Okruashvili and his popularity, but he did not make the best of that, because the Georgian authorities have prevented the unfavorable developments in time.
The ruling party keeps discussing an alleged conspiracy to overthrow the authorities, in which supposedly Patarkatsishvili, Okruashvili and the opposition parties from the United National Council were involved. The Council is actively conducting the all-Georgia campaign aimed at peaceful change of power in the country.
Another propagandistic trump card in the hands of the authorities is the accusation that the opposition is connected with the Kremlin. Taking into consideration very strained relations between Moscow and Tbilisi and the Georgian government’s anti-Russia hysteria, that way may work for some time. However, it is evident that this propaganda maneuver is for one-time use.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s internal political situation is becoming tense slowly but surely. This fire is fueled by the dramatic worsening of the social and economic situation in the country and the almost daily price increase with the scanty earnings of the majority of the population. One can say that the authorities’ actions towards Okruashvili, which were to dispel his accusations, had a reverse effect. According to the public opinion polls, most people think that his recent confessions were made under torture, so still more people are inclined to believe Okruashvili’s words.
The Georgian authorities are increasingly unwilling to carry on a civilized dialogue with the society and try to look down on the citizens by emphasizing their might. Such kind of behavior makes the gulf between the state and the society wider and apparently plays into the hands of the opposition.
One should admit though that the opposition is very weak in terms of its sources of financing, organization integrity, political platform, social basis and efficient leaders. Will Patarkatsishvili become this long-awaited leader? Most probably, it depends whether Patarkatsishvili will join the mass rally in front of the Parliament, which the united opposition is going to hold on November 2.
Former President of Georgia Eduard Shevardnadze, who has rich experience of both bloody and bloodless coups in the country, made an interesting comment about the current events in Georgia. “If people go into the streets to make the President resign, Mikheil Saakashvili must resign”, he said. However, it looks like Mikheil Saakashvili and his team have no intention of doing so and they state straightforwardly that those, who will dare to overthrow the authorities even if peacefully, will be decisively repulsed.
October 16, 2007
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