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GEORGIAN UNITED OPPOSITION VERSUS SAAKASHVILI
GHIA NODIA,
Political Scientist, Director of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi
I do not think that the Georgian authorities are ready to make a compromise with the opposition and accept its demands. A compromise can be made only on the conditions of the election holding and on the change of the election system. This issue is being discussed between the opposition and the authorities. As regards the demands that a different date for the elections should be fixed (the opposition insists on shifting the polling date from autumn 2008 to spring 2008), the parties are unlikely to come to terms.
Of course, the authorities will not comply with the demands to remove President Mikheil Saakashvili from power.
The reason why the authorities do not agree to the opposition demands is that they are an element of the parliamentary election campaign. Forcing the authorities to change the election date, the opposition tries to show that it is able to compel the authorities to make concessions and that the authorities are weak. Naturally, the President cannot tolerate that, because the authorities do not wish to display their weakness.
The opposition tries to come to power by means of the mass protests. That’s why should the authorities’ agree to its demands, the opposition will scale up its efforts and hold mass rallies.
The different date for the elections was fixed last year. Then there was no violent protest on the part of the opposition. In the current situation the opposition took advantage of the incident with ex-Defense Minister and former Saakashvili’s adherent, Irakli Okruashvili, recalling the shift of the election date in order to make its demands. Now the opposition needs a leader who can be an alternative to the current President. I doubt that the opposition’s sponsor Badri Patarkatsishvili can become such an alternative leader. The opposition lacks charismatic leaders. In this sense, Okruashvili is a more attractive political figure. Without such a leader it will be difficult for the opposition to consolidate protest voters.
The Presidents’ words that the opposition actions are incited or controlled by Russia are exaggerated. At the same time, Saakashvili has some reasons to speak in this vein. The opposition tried to enlist the West’s support, but it failed to do so. In a sense, the Russian establishment sympathizes with the opposition rally participants in Georgia, although it does not control the rally.
November 7, 2007
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