 |
PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA
MALKHAZ SALDADZE,
Political science PhD student at the Ilia Chavchavadze State University, Executive Secretary of the Ethnic Minorities Council with the Georgian Ombudsman, Tbilisi
Eurasian Home: “What are the main reasons for the dismissal of Zurab Nogaideli’s Cabinet?”
To begin with, there was no dismissal of the government. In the new political crisis, the reasons for the mass unrest at the beginning of November are seen in different ways. It seems that by firing Zurab Nogaideli President Mikheil Saakashvili wanted to show Georgia and all the world that the protests had been caused by the social problems and were not connected with the rule of law and the democracy shortage in the political system. The opposition does not agree with that.
Public opinion associated ex-Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli with unpopular economic reforms and their consequences, so his dismissal was to diminish the protests and drive the people to support President Mikheil Saakashvili.
It is revealing that the new Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze’s first statements were about the social problems: pensions, teachers and doctors’ salaries and unemployment.
Another unpopular Minister on the Issues of Refugees and Settlement, Giorgi Kheviashvili was sacked too. His activity as Minister is associated with the violent eviction of refugees from the communal centers and abuse of power when allocating the funds of the state medical care program for the disadvantaged citizens. The latter fact was one of the most vastly covered by the press and curious scandals to which TV channel “Imedi” contributed greatly. The journalists, on the one hand, made public the Minister’s statement he had addressed to the Minister of Public Health that as a person belonging to the disadvantaged group, he needed this program treatment, and on the other hand, they made public Kheviashvili’s property declaration where he had stated that he possessed quite considerable property. Of course, Kheviashvili himself did not give instructions to evict the refugees from Abkhazia, but his inability to oppose such a policy blemished his reputation. Kheviashvili was replaced by Koba Subeliani who had been the head of the beautification service under Tbilisi mayor’s office and of whom the society has a positive impression. His appointment is tactical – he is popular, enjoys the people’s confidence and promises the social guarantees to the refugees. So, they are to vote for Saakashvili.
Eurasian Home: “How popular is the single opposition candidate Levan Gachechiladze? What are the chances that he will win the presidential election? What are the opposition’s prospects after the presidential election?”
Probably, it is one of the hardest questions to answer, because the real ratings of the candidates are not known. One can say with confidence that the people’s discontent with the government and Saakashvili’s unpopularity can play into an opposition candidate’s hands, but it is necessary to take into account that the opposition does not have a single candidate. This points to weakness of the opposition that says that it has a common platform and political program, but has nominated several candidates.
As to the prospects, first of all, one should bear in mind that the likely election results are not known and this is the only reassuring fact in terms of the democratic development, since while Georgia has been independent, the winner has always been known beforehand. So, speaking about the opposition’s prospects I would proceed from the scenario undesirable for the opposition itself. Let us assume, the opposition loses the presidential election on January 5 (this may occur because the government did not allow TV channel “Imedi” to restart broadcasting, while the other channels are controlled tightly, the ruling party does not agree to all of the opposition’s demands concerning the election committee’s administration). For all that, the candidate of the United National Movement will not sweep the election as he did in 2004, in the parliamentary elections the opposition can take the votes of those who did not back Saakashvili, thus it can have many its members in the Parliament.
Eurasian Home: “How many people trust President Mikheil Saakashvili? Can he be regarded as the first runner of the presidential campaign?”
Proceeding from the above, it is difficult to say that Saakashvili can be considered the indisputable leader of the presidential campaign. If to take into account the control of the mass media by the propresidential United National Movement and the authorities’ monopoly on the financial and administrative resources, Saakashvili’s position is more advantageous than that of his rivals. That’s why we can assume that Saakashvili has a better chance of winning the election than the other candidates do. As there is no data as to the candidate’s ratings yet, it is impossible to forecast exactly whom the society will support. Of course, there will be electoral fraud, but the international observers will not allow large-scale violations, so everything depends on the social support of one or another candidate.
December 3, 2007
|
|
|
