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U.S. - RUSSIA RELATIONS UNDER THE NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION

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VIKTOR KREMENIUK,
Doctor of History, professor, deputy director of the Institute of the USA and Canada, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

With the Obama Administration coming in, there is a possibility of certain changes in the U.S. policy in the post-Soviet space. Obviously, some important issues relating to Russia and the New Independent State in the former USSR had been already defined before Obama’s inauguration.

At the hearings of the Senate Committee on foreign affairs Hillary Clinton, new Secretary of State, has firmly outlined support for Ukraine and Georgia and criticized Russia’s policy towards its neighbours, considering it a policy of pressure and blackmail. That means that the new U.S. Administration does not want to consider the NIS as Russia’s sphere of influence.

This area remains a sphere of rivalry, and the conflicts may occur within it. But at the same time a compromise is possible. Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO membership will be on agenda again. But in the years 2009-2010 Kyiv and Tbilisi won’t get NATO membership. Whereas Bush Administration welcomed their joining NATO without reservation, the new one is ready to negotiate the issue with Moscow.

In return the new U.S. Administration is expecting Russia to take steps towards improving the relations with its neighbours. The U.S.A. expects Moscow to respect NIS’ sovereignty, acknowledge their right for choosing independent foreign policy and working out strategy, irrespectively of Russia’s position.

Therefore, the rivalry between Moscow and Washington regarding the post-Soviet space will be still urgent under President Obama, but it won’t be crucial as it was under the previous Administration. A certain compromise is possible to achieve.

As regards the reaction of the new Administration to Ukraine-Russia gas crisis, Washington treats it as Europe’s concern - so it should handle it itself, except for one point.

The U.S.A. will not put up with Russia’s desperate attempts to create “gas OPEC”. Washington will do its best to prevent it. This can result in liberation of U.S. policy towards Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The gas supplied from Central Asia to the EU states makes up 2/3 of total Russian gas exports. Therefore, the U.S.A. will continue promoting a project on gas transportation from Central Asia to the EU countries through the Caspian region, bypassing Russia.

January 23, 2009




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