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A VISIT OF FEDERAL CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY ANGELA MERKEL TO RUSSIA
ALEKSANDR RAHR,
Director of Russia/CIS programs, German Council on Foreign Policy
MERKEL CANNOT AFFORD TO ENDANGER THE RUSSIAN-GERMAN RELATIONS
I believe that Angela Merkel’s visit to Russia is of great importance. She will put her own mark on the relationship between Russia and Germany.
On the one hand, Germany’s policy towards Russia is going to be changed. Under Merkel, Germany seeks to be the closest friend of the USA, as Great Britain is. Unlike France, Germany is not going to act as Russia’s main advocate in the EU.
On the other hand, Merkel realizes that Germany has certain commitment towards Russia, and that the particular relations between the two countries, which used to be manifested in the friendship between Schroeder and Putin, as well as Kohl and Yeltsin, go deep.
Besides, the German businessmen are interested in the development of the Russian market and they will not allow any violation of the partnership that has been created during the last 15 years.
I think that, in half-year there will be nothing else left for Merkel but to follow Germany’s national interests. For example, she will not be able to please Poland.
The emotional component of the relations between the two countries will be pushed back. Merkel will speak openly about Germany and Russia’s problems. In my opinion, President Putin will take Merkel’s criticism, if any, pretty easy.
At the same time, he will make it perfectly clear that the liberal model, which the West is trying to impose on Russia, is unlikely to be implemented in the country.
As for the rapprochement of Germany and the USA, it would hardly affect Germany’s policy towards Russia. Actually, there are two points of view in this regard. Some German politicians perceive Germany as the USA junior partner and Poland and the Baltic States’ advocate in the European Union.
In this case, Russia is supposed to shut itself off Europe, to become friends with China and to join the so-called new Eurasia, which will mar the Russian-European relationship.
It is necessary to note that only short-sighted politicians say things like that.
At the same time in Germany there are enough political forces which see the importance of the Russian-European cooperation. Primarily, those are business circles.
Yet, we should note that recently the Germans have been at large ill-disposed towards Russia. This has been particularly manifested in the German mass media. The gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also stained Russia’s reputation.
However, the German businessmen had become even more interested in the construction of the North European gas pipe-line since they fear that Ukraine will illegally select the Russian gas.
One can hardly predict Merkel’s behavior in future right now. She has to take into account the requirements of the German society. But she cannot afford to endanger the Russian-German relations.
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