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A VISIT OF ANGELA MERKEL TO RUSSIA
ALEKSANDR RAHR,
Director of Russia/CIS programs, German Council on Foreign Policy
The fact that the city of Tomsk is visited by one of the most important and largest German delegations emphasizes significance for Germany to develop the relations with Russia.
It is known that 8 ministers and 10 representatives of the Cabinet will arrive in Russia. The level is very high, if to consider that in course of her last visits Chancellor Angela Merkel was accompanied by only 2-3 ministers.
The atmosphere of the Russian-German relations has changed with Merkel’s coming to power. It is accounted for by two circumstances. The first one consists in Merkel’s biography. The second one is current situation in Russia. First of all, it is about Gazprom putting pressure on Ukraine and toughening its stand in the energy dialogue with Europe.
Thus, Russia shows that on a global scale it is in for a new role, it prefers to be independent rather than allowing itself to be run by the West. Obviously, it creates frictions in the Russian-German relations.
As for Gazprom, Germany has regarded it as a reliable energy partner for the last forty years. Germany believed that through energy dialogue Russia could be pulled up to the European standards, which would make it possible to solve problems in other spheres. So, the energy has always been the most important point in the negotiation process.
However, Germany is concerned about Gazprom expressing a tougher stand. The energy alliance, which had virtually been formed before, turned out up in the air.
Germany is changing its attitude to the development of atomic industry. It is possible that Europe together with Germany will construct atomic power plants again. Besides, it is planned to construct terminals for liquefied natural gas to lower dependence on the Russian gas.
In response, Russia talks about its possible resort to energy market of Asia and the USA, the step, which would exert extremely negative influence on the European economy. However, the Europeans naively think that they will be able to do without the Russian gas.
It is important that Putin’s meeting with Merkel in Russia is the second one for some time past. The ambiance of the first meeting was relatively cool. If the second meeting comes off in the same way, one may speak about emerging crisis in the Russian-German relations.
If the dialogue is constructive, this will show Germany’s desire to advocate Russia in front of the European countries.
However, to make it happen, Russia’s resolution for rapprochement with Germany on several issues must be made clear.
Of course, it would be naïve to believe that Putin’s Russia will back up such democratic parties as the Union of Right Forces and “Yabloko”, will return the mass media under control of large business or restore the governor elections procedure. Merkel would appreciate such a Russia, but for the current Russian authorities those measures are totally unacceptable.
So, the rapprochement is possible in other spheres, Iran being the major concern. Germany could support Russia’s proposal to allow Iran make the atomic energy in its territory, while moving enrichment process to Russia.
In this case, the Russian authorities will have to state that if Iran turns down this proposal, the Russian Federation will take a tougher stand, expressing its solidarity with Europe and encouraging sanctions imposition on Iran.
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