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MOSCOW-BERLIN-PARIS: PROSPECTS OF THE ENERGY ALLIANCE
ALEKSANDR RAHR,
Director of Russia/CIS programs, German Council on Foreign Policy
Russian President’s proposal to direct the gas stream from Shtokman deposit to Europe’s market should be viewed in a broader context.
Firstly, on the whole the year of 2006 will go down in history as the year of energy, particularly oil and gas.
Secondly, many large countries have been trying to work out a new energy policy. This question is critical for both the USA and Europe.
Thirdly, previously Russia's President Putin spoke about energy several times.
Before the G8 Summit in St Petersburg he actually proposed to renew the energy alliance with the USA which was suspended after the Yukos case and the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
In response to Europe’s desire to diversify the energy supplies at the expense of Algeria and the Middle East, Putin makes it clear that Russia may supply the Siberian gas to China and Japan.
Now Putin speaks about the contrary: he proposes reorientation of Shtokman deposit to Europe. In principle, this idea is not new. But given the current situation I would consider it in the broader political context. With this move Putin shows that Russia is strong enough to conduct dialogue with three partners: the USA, Europe, and the Asian countries simultaneously. At the same time he shows that Europe continues to be of priority for Russia, that Russia values the traditions of 30-year cooperation in the energy sphere.
On the whole, Europe assesses such statements in terms of politics. Europe is not ready to speak about further actions. The energy dialogue will not get practical development untill Russia comes out with specific proposals on granting the right to develop the deposits in its territory. And, of course, in reply Russia will require the more easy access of the Russian companies to the European energy supplies market.
The crucial thing is that the “three countries” (Russia-Germany-France) meeting came about. That means that the dialogue between these countries is under way. However, one can see that the dialogue is very hard to carry out.
It comes natural that big European companies are interested in Putin’s proposal. But here many things are determined by the Brussels and national bureaucracy that is not willing to make the European market dependent on one energy supplier. The more so since Russia’s political changes look suspicious in Europe.
But on the whole, the prospects for cooperation between Russia and EU in the energy sphere remain unchanged. Five years ago Putin proposed Europe the project on the joint development of Siberia’s gas deposits. Then Russia made it clear that it needed the up-to-date European technologies. Five years later the Russian leader returns to this project, which points to large interest from the part of Russia.
September 25, 2006
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