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THE INSTITUTE FOR POLLING & MARKETING: GEORGIA. POLITICAL RATING FOR MAY
Starting from April, 28 till May, 5 IPM has conducted next in turn wave of omnibus survey and used political questions only for estimation of political organization’s ratings. 900 interviews were conducted within the entire Georgia, which proved again, that in conditions of non-existence of the strategy of parties (National movement from one side and oppositional parties from the other) there doesn’t happen anything new. Particularly, the National movement retains its ratings separately in Tbilisi and in the entire Georgia, while opposition parties are sorting out their rating relations and aren’t able to do something particular with the National movement. As it was two months earlier, the National movement owns 15% of voting resource in Tbilisi, and up to 30% recourse in the entire Georgia. Opposition controls up to 60% of votes in Tbilisi. The rest votes are indefinite (approx 18% of the respondents haven’t named the selected party), and the respondent by themselves are being in indefinite state (approx 10%).
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United National Movement
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14,3
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Alliance for Georgia
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14,3
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National Forum
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13,1
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Labor party
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9,3
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Christian-Democratic party
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9,0
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United for Georgia
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2,7
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Other parties
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9,2
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Refuse to answer
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18,1
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None of the parties/ I wouldn’t go on elections
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9,9
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It’s clear, that during inactive period the Christian-Democratic party loses its votes (for Tbilisi on average-5%), and the National forum makes use of it most of all (+6%).
All the experts have claimed that the picture of Tbilisi will be repeated by the rest of Georgia (in other words, Tbilisi rating proportions would spread over the whole country), but nobody has a clear idea when would it happen. It is fact that it will happen when at least communicational area (media inclusive of course) of Tbilisi and the rest of Georgia will be equalized by received informational volume and structure. But it is not expected yet (three channels are broadcasted out of Tbilisi- Public Broadcasting, Rustavi 2 and Imedi). So, the sole communicational channel, which could be effective in this communicational area is a social communicational channel.
Data for Georgia are following:
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12 United National movement
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29,8
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1 Alliance for Georgia
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13,5
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2 Christian-Democratic movement
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10,9
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8 Labor party
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9,0
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9 National Forum
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4,9
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5 United for Georgia
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4,1
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Other parties
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2,7
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95 None of the parties
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8,9
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97 Refuse to answer
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16,2
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It is rather presumable, that this picture won’t be very viable as it seems a political crisis in country only gains in strength. If opposition brings its charge into the rest of country, it is obvious that the picture there will become the same as in Tbilisi. If not, then the National movement may start to return its lost ratings.
“The Institute for Polling & Marketing”, May 27, 2009
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