“PROTEST ACTION IN TBILISI WILL RESULT IN THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE AUTHORITIES AND OPPOSITION”
DAVID LOSABERIDZE,
Program director, member of the Executive Council of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi
I believe that the 9 April protest action will result in the consensus between the authorities and opposition. Some excesses are possible, but force is unlikely to be used. The authorities as well as the opposition have their own “hawks” who may try to use force. But the conflict should end in the consensus.
The details of consensus are of no importance. Whether this will be transition to the parliamentary form of government, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s resignation or “strong premier – weak president” formula, it would be of significance in terms of Georgia’s form of government rather than of solving the problem of confrontation between the authorities and opposition.
Here many interests, mainly personal ambitions and goals of different groups, clash. It is impossible to overcome the political crisis through setting up a dictatorship or an anarchy, because Georgia has resources neither for the dictatorship nor for the anarchy. That’s why the consensus is necessary.
Apart from that, the rally showed that many people were displeased with the current authorities. The global economic crisis adversely affects the ratings of the authorities, in particular of President Saakashvili, which also forces the sides to seek the consensus.
The external players come out for peaceful settlement of the conflict between the Georgian authorities and opposition. The West is not interested in a worsening of the situation. What is more, it will side with nobody if drastic measures are taken. This will seriously harm an external player, whether the West or Russia.
April 16, 2009
|